10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

1. Inflation Will Fall More than the Fed Expects
2. The Unemployment Rate Will Rise from Historically Low Levels
3. A Recession Will Start Around the Middle of 2023
4. Strong Credit Fundamentals Will Limit Spread Widening
5. Attractive Yields Will Drive Fixed-Income Returns
6. High-Quality Fixed Income Will Outperform Equities
7. Bonds Will Again Provide Diversification as Fed Wins the Inflation Battle
8. Structural Housing Supply Shortage Will Limit Downside to Home Prices
9. China Reopening Will Boost Energy Demand
10. Divided Government and Narrow Majorities Will Spur Debt Limit Drama

Important Notices and Disclosures

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

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This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

 

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at Guggenheim Investments, joined Asset TV to discuss macroeconomic conditions, risk, and relative value in the bond market.

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2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 31: Post-FOMC/SVB Analysis

Matt Bush, Guggenheim Investments U.S. Economist, and Evan Serdensky, a Portfolio Manager on our Total Return team, share their perspectives and outlook following two eventful weeks in markets and the economy. They discuss the future path of monetary policy, the effects of a possible credit crunch, and investment strategy and positioning.

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Macro Markets Podcast: Episode #31