/institutional/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/fixed-income-outlook-finding-relative-value-wi-(1

Finding Relative Value with One Eye on Global Central Banks 

Our third quarter 2016 report, details our current fixed-income strategy, economic outlook and where we see relative value.

August 17, 2016


Report Highlights

After the Brexit vote surprised the many market participants who had positioned themselves for the opposite outcome, the market panicked. Market stability—and then a rally—only arrived once central banks promised liquidity support. Looking ahead, it is likely that we will experience further volatility before the year is out. The situation in Europe and Japan is reaching a tipping point as policymakers decide whether to stand pat and wait for incoming data, or take more action as conditions worsen. Their decisions (and the Fed’s) carry significant investment implications.

Find out where our fixed-income investment team is finding relative value in a world of low and negative rates and uncertain monetary policy.

  • Our Macroeconomic Research team expects solid near-term growth in U.S. underpinned by strength in the consumer sector, but the Fed likely will remain on hold until December 2016.
  • Slow and steady economic growth, a cautious Fed, low interest rates, and improving oil market supply-demand fundamentals have created a favorable environment for fixed-income markets.
  • The global macroeconomic backdrop, and the central banks’ willingness to continue their accommodative policies, should support risk assets going forward.
  • Our oil price model calls for seasonal weakness in the second half of 2016 before prices rise to $55 by mid-2017.
  • We see value in energy and basic materials credits, as well as technology and media companies.
  • In securitized products, we continue to find value in new-issue aircraft lease transactions, and in collateralized loan obligations backed by loans to middle market companies.
 

FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

July 30, 2021

Things Couldn’t Be Better

The COVID Delta Variant’s Looming Threat to Risk Assets.

July 26, 2021

A Better Way to Pay for Infrastructure Investments

A revival of the Obama-era Build America Bonds would raise funds with less taxes.

July 14, 2021

Still No Reason to Panic About Inflation

Taking a look at the upside surprise in June’s CPI.


VIDEO

Midyear Outlook 

Midyear Outlook

Brian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Fund Management (Europe) Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.