/institutional/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/fixed-income-outlook-second-quarter

Managing Through a Persistent State of Heightened Volatility

In the second-quarter 2016 report, our fixed-income team discusses where we’re finding relative value amid market volatility.

May 24, 2016


Report Highlights

  • We expect the heightened first quarter volatility will continue into the summer. This will create opportunities to allocate to positions overly discounted due to unwarranted fears of recession or financial crisis.
  • Macroeconomic factors, such as solid but unspectacular economic growth, a cautious Fed, and improving oil market supply/demand fundamentals, underpin our generally positive outlook for U.S. credit.
  • A stabilized oil market should support credit performance of issuers in the energy sector. Our outlook applies primarily to the investment-grade corporate bond market, but it should also support select high-yield issuers as well.
  • Structured credit continues to have a significant weighting in our strategies based on our relative value analysis across fixed-income markets.
  • We expect the Fed to raise rates once in 2016. In our view, policymakers will be watching Chinese growth, the “Brexit” vote in June, and the U.S. presidential election in November.
  • Our investment process, which is designed to avoid cognitive biases, snap judgments, and other decision-making pitfalls, provides a foundation for disciplined, systematic, and repeatable investment results that does not rely on one key individual or group.
 
 
 

FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

April 12, 2022

An Investor’s Guide to the Runup to Recession

Comparing pre-recession performance of multiple asset classes.

March 22, 2022

For Lessons on Fighting Inflation, Skip Over Volcker to 1946

Clues from history on how to successfully end the current surge in prices.

March 04, 2022

Credit Returns in the Upcoming Fed Hiking Cycle

Exploring the performance of leveraged credit in past tightening cycles.


VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

First Quarter 2022 Market Outlook 

First Quarter 2022 Market Outlook

Maria Giraldo, CFA, Managing Director, Investment Research, and Evan Serdensky, Director, Portfolio Management, provide our macro and markets outlook.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast: Episode #13: Muni Market Update

U.S. Economist Matt Bush analyzes the latest Fed announcement and labor and inflation data, Investment Strategist Maria Giraldo discusses credit risk while the Fed tightens, and Managing Director Chris Keywork updates on the bank loan market.







© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Fund Management (Europe) Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.