/institutional/perspectives/sector-views/high-yield-and-bank-loan-outlook-november-2022

A Strong Credit Market Shapes the Default Outlook

The stress in this credit cycle is driven by unforgiving high interest rates.

November 21, 2022


High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook

Fourth Quarter 2022

Here are the key takeaways from our latest High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook report:

  • The stress in this cycle is driven by unforgiving high interest rates as opposed to previous cycles triggered by a specific sector-related shock.
  • The default rate is likely to reach 3–3.5 percent by the end of 2023 in U.S. high yield and bank loan sectors but will continue rising after that as a likely longer-than-average recession ensues.
  • Our biggest concern is the possible lack of a typical monetary and fiscal policy response that occurs when the U.S. economy undergoes a recession, due to fears of re-igniting above-target inflation.
  • After the recent rally, yields and spreads remain near the most attractive they have been in the past decade, and we think risk premiums in higher-quality high-yield compensate for default risk over the next 24 months.
  • Investors must be aware of downside risks that remain while the economy absorbs the full extent of policy tightening.
Important Notices and Disclosures

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline.  High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.  Investors in asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate loans are repaid. Some asset-backed securities may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity and valuation risk. CLOs bear similar risks to investing in loans directly, such as credit, interest rate, counterparty, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. Loans are often below investment grade, may be unrated, and typically offer a fixed or floating interest rate.

One basis point is equal to 0.01 percent.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited,  GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

©2022, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


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VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income 

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at Guggenheim Investments, joined Asset TV to discuss macroeconomic conditions, risk, and relative value in the bond market.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 28: Fed Day, Jobs Day, and 10 Macro Themes

Brian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, discusses the Fed rate decision, recent inflation, labor, and GDP data, and possible next steps for monetary policy. He also provides key takeaways for investors from our 10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023.







© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.