/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/10-macro-themes-to-watch-in-2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.

January 23, 2017


Highlights

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, and our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group analyze in 10 annotated charts the global macroeconomic trends we believe are most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017. Among our major themes:

  • The combination of tax cuts and infrastructure spending under a range of fiscal stimulus plans—including the Trump campaign proposal—will boost GDP growth, but the impact will be determined by the size, scope, and timing.
  • We expect three, possibly four, rate hikes in 2017, which will result in a yield curve flattening. A barbell portfolio strategy is appropriate for this kind of market.
  • Thanks to improving oil prices, easier lending conditions, and stronger economic growth, the high-yield corporate default rate will fall to 4 percent in 2017, a level below the 25-year average. Investors should maintain exposure to leveraged credit.
  • Oil will rise but average less than $60 per barrel, the unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent, and inflation will be contained.

FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

July 29, 2020

China Matters More Than Ever

Cooperation and understanding between China and United States is vital as global economic and environmental challenges mount.

July 27, 2020

A Payroll Tax Holiday Will Put the U.S. Back to Work

The pandemic creates a good opportunity to make Social Security more sustainable.

June 08, 2020

The Fed’s Roadmap

The Fed has increasingly unorthodox policy options if the economy remains mired in a protracted downturn.


VIDEO

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch share insights from the fourth quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

2020 Macro Themes 

Macro Themes for 2020

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.







Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.

© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.

• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.