/perspectives/media/economic-data-suggest-markets-have-further-to-fall

Economic Data Suggest Markets Have Further to Fall

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, explains on CNBC that while monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts are helpful, much more is needed to forestall the downturn.
 

March 27, 2020

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The market has not yet reached a bottom. Expect unemployment levels as high as 15 percent and growth down 10 percent before the end of this crisis.
  • While the speed of fiscal and monetary policy responses is encouraging, neither is likely to stimulate a turnaround in economic conditions.
  • $1 trillion in investment-grade corporate debt is vulnerable to a downgrade.
  • The reaction function by policymakers is much faster than in the financial crisis, but the bill for this “Faustian Bargain” may now be coming due.


Read Global CIO Outlook: The Faustian Bargain


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

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Guggenheim’s 2020 Election Portfolios

Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We will publish daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.

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In the Eye of the Storm

The relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye.

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The Impact of the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities

As a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to shore up credit markets, the leveraged credit sector has delivered stellar performance since the lows in March.


VIDEO

Third Quarter Outlook 

Third Quarter 2020 Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Steve Brown share their outlook for the third quarter 2020.

2020 Macro Themes 

Macro Themes for 2020

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.







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