/perspectives/media/economic-data-suggest-markets-have-further-to-fall

Economic Data Suggest Markets Have Further to Fall

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, explains on CNBC that while monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts are helpful, much more is needed to forestall the downturn.
 

March 27, 2020

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The market has not yet reached a bottom. Expect unemployment levels as high as 15 percent and growth down 10 percent before the end of this crisis.
  • While the speed of fiscal and monetary policy responses is encouraging, neither is likely to stimulate a turnaround in economic conditions.
  • $1 trillion in investment-grade corporate debt is vulnerable to a downgrade.
  • The reaction function by policymakers is much faster than in the financial crisis, but the bill for this “Faustian Bargain” may now be coming due.


Read Global CIO Outlook: The Faustian Bargain


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

May 20, 2020

Reaching the End of the Runway

While the U.S. speculative-grade default rate could reach 15 percent in this cycle, the market is offering better entry points than seen in years.

May 10, 2020

We Are All Government-Sponsored Enterprises Now

The support to corporate America during this economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government.

April 26, 2020

Prepare for the Era of Recrimination

The unintended consequences and moral hazard of insufficient and misdirected policies.


VIDEO

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Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

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Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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