/perspectives/media/fed-policy-and-the-business-cycle

Fed Policy and the Business Cycle

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, stops by CNN International on the morning of the FOMC meeting to discuss the Fed’s ability to delay the timing of the next recession.

September 18, 2019

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The Fed is boxed into a quarter of a point rate cut.
  • To send a clearer signal that the Fed wants to avoid recession it should rip off the band-aid and cut rates by a half a percent.
  • The question of recession is not if, but when. According to Guggenheim’s models, there is over a 50 percent chance a recession will begin within the next year.
  • Putting a lid on rates and expanding the money supply was a fundamental problem in the 1970s that set off an inflation spiral. Today the Fed has to avoid losing control of the balance sheet.


Read Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

 


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

June 08, 2020

The Fed’s Roadmap

The Fed has increasingly unorthodox policy options if the economy remains mired in a protracted downturn.

May 20, 2020

Reaching the End of the Runway

While the U.S. speculative-grade default rate could reach 15 percent in this cycle, the market is offering better entry points than seen in years.

May 10, 2020

We Are All Government-Sponsored Enterprises Now

The support to corporate America during this economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government.


VIDEO

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch share insights from the fourth quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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