/perspectives/media/fed-policy-and-the-business-cycle

Fed Policy and the Business Cycle

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, stops by CNN International on the morning of the FOMC meeting to discuss the Fed’s ability to delay the timing of the next recession.

September 18, 2019

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The Fed is boxed into a quarter of a point rate cut.
  • To send a clearer signal that the Fed wants to avoid recession it should rip off the band-aid and cut rates by a half a percent.
  • The question of recession is not if, but when. According to Guggenheim’s models, there is over a 50 percent chance a recession will begin within the next year.
  • Putting a lid on rates and expanding the money supply was a fundamental problem in the 1970s that set off an inflation spiral. Today the Fed has to avoid losing control of the balance sheet.


Read Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

 


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

August 22, 2019

Looking Past the Liquidity-Driven Rally

Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.

July 29, 2019

The Fed's Sugar High

Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.


VIDEO

Third Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Third Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Matt Bush, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, share insights from the third quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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