/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/fixed-income-outlook-identifying-relative-value-a

Identifying Relative Value Across U.S. Fixed-Income Market Sectors

In our new quarterly publication, the leaders of our fixed-income investment team discuss how we are positioning our Core, Core Plus and Multi Credit (unconstrained) Fixed Income portfolios to capitalize on relative value across sectors.

March 17, 2016


Portfolio Positioning: First Quarter 2016

Over the last several years, the fixed income landscape has been reshaped by unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy, which has artificially depressed yields on government-related fixed income securities and caused the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index to become heavily concentrated in low-yielding Treasury and agency debt. To uncover value, we have looked beyond the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, preferring fixed income spread sectors as opposed to the Treasury, agency, and traditional pass-through mortgage sectors. Currently, we see the most compelling value in asset-backed securities (ABS) and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities:

  • High-quality collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), a subset of the ABS market, have had historically low default rates, with AAA-rated and AA-rated CLO tranches experiencing no defaults or principal losses between 1994 and 2014. With recent spread widening across the capital structure, high-quality CLOs are increasingly attractive on a relative basis, with yield premiums of 100-200 basis points relative to corporate bonds of the same credit rating.
  • Non-agency RMBS are supported by strong fundamentals, as delinquency rates have declined significantly from crisis highs, owing to the recovery in home prices and historically low rates. The sector is also benefiting from a healthy technical backdrop.

Please read our full report to learn more about Guggenheim’s outlook for each of the following sectors:

  • Investment grade corporates
  • High yield
  • Bank loans
  • Asset-backed securities and CLOs
  • Non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities
  • Commercial mortgage-backed securities
  • Commercial real estate debt
  • Municipals
  • Agency residential mortgage-backed securities
  • Treasury and agency securities
 
 

FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

March 27, 2020

The Faustian Bargain

The consequences of policymakers returning to the same tools employed in the financial crisis.

March 22, 2020

The Great Leverage Unwind

Funding and trading markets are not functioning well due to excessive leverage needing to be unwound in the financial system.

March 20, 2020

Value Is a Poor Timing Tool

Markets often overshoot, and just because things are cheap doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper.


VIDEO

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Fourth Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch share insights from the fourth quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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