/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/fixed-income-outlook-managing-through-a-persisten

Fixed-Income Outlook: Managing Through a Persistent State of Heightened Volatility

In the second-quarter 2016 report, our fixed-income team discusses where we’re finding relative value amid market volatility.

May 24, 2016   |    By Scott Minerd


Report Highlights

  • We expect the heightened first quarter volatility will continue into the summer. This will create opportunities to allocate to positions overly discounted due to unwarranted fears of recession or financial crisis.
  • Macroeconomic factors, such as solid but unspectacular economic growth, a cautious Fed, and improving oil market supply/demand fundamentals, underpin our generally positive outlook for U.S. credit.
  • A stabilized oil market should support credit performance of issuers in the energy sector. Our outlook applies primarily to the investment-grade corporate bond market, but it should also support select high-yield issuers as well.
  • Structured credit continues to have a significant weighting in our strategies based on our relative value analysis across fixed-income markets.
  • We expect the Fed to raise rates once in 2016. In our view, policymakers will be watching Chinese growth, the “Brexit” vote in June, and the U.S. presidential election in November.
  • Our investment process, which is designed to avoid cognitive biases, snap judgments, and other decision-making pitfalls, provides a foundation for disciplined, systematic, and repeatable investment results that does not rely on one key individual or group.
 

FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

February 15, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook: Assessing Value in a Faith-Based Rally

Our first quarter 2017 report reflects expectations for strong risk-asset performance as President Trump’s economic agenda takes shape.

January 23, 2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.

January 13, 2017

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook: Focus on Floating Rate

Conditions bode well for credit, but a more aggressive Fed and geopolitics could bring volatility. 


VIDEO

Long-Term Macroeconomic Outlook 

Our Long-Term Macroeconomic Outlook

Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer, sheds light on U.S. economic strength, headwinds for the EU, and which emerging markets look attractive for long-term investors.

Strategies for a Low-Yield Environment 

Strategies for a Low-Yield Environment

Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer, and Anne Walsh, Assistant Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, share insights on investing in unprecedented market conditions.



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Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"), which includes Security Investors, LLC ("SI"), Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, ("GFIA") and Guggenheim Partners Investment Management ("GPIM") the investment advisers to the referenced funds. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Guggenheim, SI, GFIA and GPIM.

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