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Staying on Offense

Even as credit spreads have narrowed, further value remains.

March 11, 2021


Fixed Income Outlook video

Adam Bloch and Matt Bush share their outlook for the first quarter 2021.


Fixed-Income Outlook

First Quarter 2021

Here are the key takeaways from our latest Fixed-Income Outlook report:

  • Additional fiscal stimulus, healthy consumer balance sheets, and accommodative Fed policy have created a constructive macroeconomic backdrop for risk assets.
  • As investment-grade corporate spreads currently sit near decade tights, and with much good news priced in, we expect credit spreads to trade in a narrow range.
  • High yield corporates, which experienced greater credit stress from COVID-driven shutdowns, should continue to benefit as the economy reopens.
  • Within structured credit, we have found compelling risk-adjusted profiles in financial ABS, aircraft sale-leaseback transactions, and subordinated CLO debt investments.
  • As the virus continues to infect commercial real estate, we are closely monitoring COVID-19’s impact on cash flows and resulting effects on property values in 2021.
  • As long-term yields have reached the value zone, a market or overweight position may very well prove to be the low-risk choice.
Important Notices and Disclosures

One basis point is equal to 0.01 percent.

Investments in fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Investors in asset-backed securities, including collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate loans are repaid. Some asset-backed securities may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity and valuation risk. CLOs bear similar risks to investing in loans directly, such as credit, interest rate, counterparty, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. Loans are often below investment grade, may be unrated, and typically offer a fixed or floating interest rate.

This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management. This material is intended to inform you of services available through Guggenheim Investments’ affiliate businesses.

© 2021 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.

May 13, 2021

In the Recovery Phase of the Credit Cycle

Strong earnings growth, low default volumes, upward rating migration, and tighter spreads in the recovery phase of the credit cycle.

March 25, 2021

A Successful Green New Deal Will Need Private Partners

A Green New Deal should not be viewed as a big government program, but as an opportunity to reinvent vast swaths of the U.S. economy while pursuing the laudable goal of carbon neutrality.


VIDEO

First Quarter 2021 Fixed-Income Outlook
 

First Quarter 2021 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Matt Bush, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, share their outlook for the first quarter 2021.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Fund Management (Europe) Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.

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