/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/q2-2018-fixed-income-outlook

Positioned for Choppier Waters

After several quarters of low volatility, tight spreads, and abundant liquidity, financial conditions are shifting.

May 16, 2018


Fixed Income Outlook video

Steve Brown and Matt Bush share insights from the Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook


Fixed-Income Outlook

Second Quarter 2018

Here are the key takeaways from our latest Fixed-Income Outlook report:

  • The complacent environment, characterized by low volatility and a scarcity of bonds to buy, is changing.
  • The shift from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening took its toll in the first quarter of 2018 as rate, credit, and equity volatility all spiked.
  • We expect more of the same going forward and are preparing portfolios accordingly.
  • As we approach the turn in the credit cycle, our portfolio managers have been shortening portfolio duration, opportunistically moving up in credit, and maintaining a reasonable liquidity buffer for picking up undervalued credits in periods of market weakness.
 
 
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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

August 22, 2019

Looking Past the Liquidity-Driven Rally

Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.

July 29, 2019

The Fed's Sugar High

Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.


VIDEO

Third Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Third Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Matt Bush, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, share insights from the third quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







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