/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/q2-2019-fixed-income-outlook

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot has supported a rally in most credit sectors, but investors should worry about late cycle excesses.

June 17, 2019


Fixed Income Outlook video

Steve Brown and Brian Smedley share insights from the Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook


Fixed-Income Outlook

Second Quarter 2019

Here are the key takeaways from our latest Fixed-Income Outlook report:

  • We maintain our duration underweight and shifted most of the curve positioning out of the barbell to neutral with the benchmark.
  • Abundant late-cycle signals suggest that the risk-reward of owning credit is unfavorable
  • We continue to maintain liquidity buffers that are higher than typical, which should allow us to pick up undervalued credits during more opportune times.
  • An uptick in labor force participation has slowed the pace of decline in the unemployment rate to just 0.2 percentage point in the year through May. Historically, a flattening out of the unemployment rate has been a strong leading indicator of recession.
  • Even if the Fed’s pause extends the cycle, adding to credit risk at this point in the cycle is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Relatively high valuations in a period of increasing uncertainty warrants a cautious stance with regard to risk assets.
  • Our recession forecasting tools continue to point to a downturn in the next six to 12 months.
 
 
Important Notices and Disclosures

Investments in fixed-income instruments are subject to the possibility that interest rates could rise, causing their values to decline. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Investors in asset-backed securities, including collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate loans are repaid. Some asset-backed securities may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity and valuation risk. CLOs bear similar risks to investing in loans directly, such as credit, interest rate, counterparty, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. Loans are often below investment grade, may be unrated, and typically offer a fixed or floating interest rate.

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

September 22, 2020

Guggenheim’s 2020 Election Portfolios

Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We will publish daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.

August 19, 2020

The Impact of the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities

As a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to shore up credit markets, the leveraged credit sector has delivered stellar performance since the lows in March.

July 29, 2020

China Matters More Than Ever

Cooperation and understanding between China and United States is vital as global economic and environmental challenges mount.


VIDEO

Third Quarter Outlook 

Third Quarter 2020 Outlook

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Steve Brown share their outlook for the third quarter 2020.

2020 Macro Themes 

Macro Themes for 2020

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.







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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.

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