/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/q3-2017-fixed-income-outlook

Fixed-Income Outlook: The Best Offense Is a Good Defense

As concerns mount that the market has become vulnerable to near-term shocks, we remain committed to reducing credit risk and spread duration.

August 16, 2017


Fixed Income Outlook video

James Michal and Brian Smedley provide additional perspective on our 3Q 2017 Fixed-Income Outlook.


Report Summary

Stock market indexes keep making new highs, credit performance has been strong, and credit spreads keep getting tighter. At the same time, volatility plumbs record lows and central bank policies continue to obscure free market price discovery. In the new edition of our Fixed-Income Outlook, our investment management team explains why a defensive posture is a prudent course of action, and discusses shorter-term, sector-specific tactics to position our portfolios to weather the looming correction. In particular, we believe credit risk assets are particularly at risk of a correction, so we have continued to reduce our exposure to that sector. Our high-yield corporate bond allocation across our Core and Multi-Credit strategies is now at the lowest level since their inception, and we have reduced our positions in lower-rated bank loans and CLO debt.

 
 
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This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

April 12, 2018

Not Too Soon to Think About Defaults and Recovery Rates

Benign conditions support near term value in credit, but default rates will rise as the Fed tightens further and corporate debt levels continue to grow.

March 26, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Prepare for when the effects of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and monetary policy keeps getting more restrictive.

February 21, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook: Walking the Risk Tightrope

Current conditions could persist for some time, but with a possible recession approximately two years away, the time for caution is approaching.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecating the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







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