/perspectives/portfolio-strategy/q4-2017-fixed-income-outlook

A Tight Market Gets Tighter

Prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.

November 13, 2017


Fixed Income Outlook video

Steve Brown and Maria Giraldo provide additional perspective on our 4Q 2017 Fixed-Income Outlook.


Fixed-Income Outlook

Fourth Quarter 2017

Virtually every piece of data you could look at is associated with a solid economy, and it is about to get stronger from the surge in post-hurricane rebuilding, seasonal tailwinds, and possible tax cuts. At the same time, the Fed is ratcheting rates higher and normalizing its balance sheet, spreads in most fixed-income sectors are moving to historical tights, and below investment-grade yields are likely to breach historical lows. Investors today are simply not being compensated for the risks they are taking. The question now is how to generate yield without taking on undue interest-rate or credit risk. The challenge is to avoid chasing short-term gains and maintain the discipline required for long-term investing success.

 
 
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FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

November 19, 2018

Jogging to the Exits

Preparing for the market turbulence that typically occurs in the run up to a recession.

October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

October 15, 2018

Beneath the Tide of Rising Earnings

Factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth this year will fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds in 2020, exposing leveraged corporate borrowers.


VIDEO

Forecasting the Next Recession 

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







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