/perspectives/sector-views/asset-backed-securities-and-clos-a-wild-ride-on-sa

Asset-Backed Securities and CLOs: A Wild Ride on Santa's Sleigh

A sharp December selloff highlights the need to remain vigilant.

March 07, 2019


This Asset-Backed Securities and CLOs sector report is excerpted from the First Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

CLO spreads, under pressure since the first quarter of 2018, gapped wider in the last months of the year with other risk assets. CLO spreads ended the year 20–200 basis points wider compared to the start of the year (depending on tranche rating) and CLOs ended the year roughly flat on a total return basis. The soft pricing environment did not discourage issuers: 2018 set the high watermark in new issuance at around $130 billion, and there are now 111 CLO managers, up from 68 in 2012 (see chart, top right). New issuance supply in 2019, however, may be negatively affected by less attractive pricing and fewer CLOs exiting their non-call period. From a collateral perspective, leveraged loans continue to feature no or low covenant structures. In 2018, 85 percent of leveraged loan issuance was covenant lite, resulting in 79 percent of all outstanding leveraged loans either having no or low covenant packages. Nonetheless, CLOs offer good value in the medium term, given a short average life profile that contributed to better performance relative to corporate credit of comparable quality.

2018 Set Record for CLO Issuance and Managers

2018 set the high watermark in CLO new issuance at around $130 billion, while total CLO managers now stand at 111, up from 68 in 2012.

2018 Set Record for CLO Issuance and Managers

Source: Guggenheim Investments, Wells Fargo. Data as of 12.31.2018.

Esoteric ABS spreads also marched wider in the fourth quarter. While fundamental credit performance remained sound across esoteric ABS subsectors, the general risk-off environment negatively affected price performance in the space. Commercial ABS experienced strong levels of issuance in 2018, with commercial and financial ABS sectors issuing over $25 billion. Current expectations call for a similar issuance in 2019. We are becoming more selective, as many market participants fail to distinguish credit quality and structural nuances within each sector. For example, new structural features in certain aircraft ABS were developed in 2018 that permit the syndication and trading of equity certificates. While this structural evolution has been met with enthusiastic demand from hedge funds, we are sensitive to the potential coordination and agency problems syndicated equity may present in times of distress and/or the transaction’s scheduled maturity.

Most Leveraged Loans Lack Investor Protections

In 2018, 85 percent of leveraged loans issuance was covenant lite.

Most Leveraged Loans Lack Investor Protections

Source: Guggenheim Investments, S&P LCD. Data as of 12.31.2018.

While spreads have recovered from the December wides, our focus remains on short, amortizing senior securities. Aircraft finance and esoteric commercial ABS will remain a focus in 2019.

—Peter Van Gelderen, Managing Director; Josip Zdrilic, CFA, Director

 

Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

©2019, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

March 07, 2019

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding

Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.

January 24, 2019

Amber Lights Flash at Davos

Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.

January 18, 2019

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

An uptick in corporate defaults in 2019 will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of stress in the corporate bond market.


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