/perspectives/sector-views/asset-backed-securities-and-clos-focus-on-prepaym

Asset-Backed Securities and CLOs: Focus on Prepayment and Extension Risk

Tight spreads and weak call protection fuel our preference for shorter CLO and senior ABS tranches.

February 23, 2018


This Asset-Backed Securities and CLOs sector report is excerpted from the First Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook.

CLO spreads are at post-crisis tights, having fully recovered from the sharp widening in the first half of 2016. We expect spreads to continue to collapse near pre-crisis levels, with AAA coupons down to Libor plus 50 basis points or potentially tighter. Credit curves have flattened, reducing compensation for structured products relative to corporate debt, and for subordinate versus senior tranches. New primary issuance in 2017 of $118 billion, which ranks as second-highest, was supplemented by $102 billion of refi and $64 billion of reset issuance. Middle-market CLO issuance reached a new peak of $14 billion, and a new peak of 99 managers issued CLOs in 2017. Credit metrics underlying the CLO market remain strong, and increasing diversity in broadly syndicated loan CLOs reduces idiosyncratic credit risk. New-issue CLOs generally price wider than secondary CLOs, but we remain cautious of the asymmetry of return on new-issue CLOs with long reinvestment periods given weak call protection, the ability of managers to extend or shorten portfolio maturity, and our expectation of a credit cycle turn. We are focused on refi and reset transactions with short reinvestment periods (typically two years).

AAA-BBB Credit Curve Continues to Flatten

The credit curve for investment grade-rated tranches (spreads for AAA-rated bonds minus spreads for BBB-rated spreads) flattened by 40 basis points during the fourth quarter.

AAA-BBB Credit Curve Continues to Flatten

Source: J.P. Morgan, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.2017.

Per the JPM CLOIE indexes, lower-quality CLOs outperformed higher-quality CLOs over the fourth quarter, with BB-rated post-crisis CLOs returning 3.5 percent versus returns of 1.4, 1.0, 0.9, and 0.7 percent for BBB-rated, A-rated, AA-rated, and AAA-rated CLOs, respectively. The broader post-crisis CLO index returned 1.0 percent.

We favor nontraditional ABS sectors given low levels of spreads in traditional auto, credit card, and student loan classes. Whole-business securitization issuance set a new peak of $7.4 billion in 2017, and spreads tightened by approximately 50 basis points in the sector. We continue to focus on top-tier restaurant names and avoid weaker restaurant concepts and non-restaurant issuers. Aircraft ABS also reached a new high of $6 billion new-issue volume, with 10 transactions, six from first-time servicers. We remain focused on very tight structures, strong servicers, and capable and well-resourced equity sponsors. Container ABS issuance and performance strengthened relative to 2016, while railcar ABS remains marred by overcapacity. Triple net-lease ABS has been affected by portfolio and sponsor issues. We continue to be wary of cyclical businesses and securities with extension risk in nontraditional ABS, primarily those related to soft-bullet maturities.

Investment-Grade CLO and Corporate Bond Spreads Are Converging

CLO spreads are at post-crisis tights, having fully recovered from the sharp widening in the first half of 2016. Spreads have tightened faster than in the investment-grade corporate bond market, reducing compensation for structured products relative to corporate debt.

Investment-Grade CLO and Corporate Bond Spreads Are Converging

Source: J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 12.31.2017. Guggenheim estimates an investment-grade CLO Composite on a weighted-average basis based on the average share of AAA, AA, A, and BBB-rated tranches in a typical CLO capital structure.

—Matt Lindland, CFA, Senior Managing Director; Michelle Liu, CFA, Director; George Mancheril, Vice President

 
Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

July 29, 2019

The Fed's Sugar High

Rational immigration policy, not rate cuts, is the way to avoid recession.

July 17, 2019

High-Yield Credit in a Fed Easing Cycle

High-yield corporate bond spreads and bank loan discount margins typically widen when the Fed is lowering interest rates.

June 17, 2019

Managing While Risk Premia Shrink

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot has supported a rally in most credit sectors, but investors should worry about late cycle excesses.


VIDEO

Second Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook 

Second Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Steve Brown and Brian Smedley, Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, explain that while the Federal Reserve's pause in policy has supported a rally in most credit sectors, investors should worry about excesses continuing to build this late in the cycle.

Core Fixed-Income Conundrum 

Solving the Core Conundrum

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, shares insights on the fixed-income market and explains the Guggenheim approach to solving the Core Conundrum.







Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Guggenheim, SI, GFIA and GPIM.

© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.

• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.