Bank Loans: A Double-Edged Sword
Concerns about inflation and a steeper path for Fed rate hikes buoyed investor demand for floating-rate assets, but defaults are ticking higher.
Loan mutual funds and exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of almost $4 billion year to date through April, compared to net outflows of over $15 billion for high-yield corporate bond funds. We saw similar activity in mutual fund flows in late 2016, when a 127 basis point backup in 10-year Treasury yields—from a low of 1.36 percent in July 2016 to 2.63 percent in March 2017—was accompanied by cumulative net loan fund inflows of $23 billion over the same period. Bank loans outperformed high-yield corporate bonds for the second quarter in a row on the back of strong investor demand.
Loan Fund Flows Turned Positive as Treasury Yields Rose
Bank loan mutual funds and ETFs saw inflows of $4 billion year to date through April. We saw similar activity in mutual fund flows in late 2016, when a 127-basis point backup in 10-year Treasury yields—from a low of 1.36 percent in July 2016 to 2.63 percent in March 2017—was accompanied by cumulative net loan fund inflows of $23 billion over the same period.
Source: Bloomberg, Lipper, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 4.27.2018. LHS = left hand side, RHS = right hand side.
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index posted gains across all ratings. On average, leveraged loans returned 1.6 percent for the quarter, with CCC-rated loans delivering the strongest gains of 3.6 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for BB-rated loans, and 1.6 percent for B-rated loans.
The significant increase in rates may attract investors to floating-rate loans, but it will have negative consequences for some borrowers. This is highlighted in the recent uptick in default activity, with both the 12-month trailing par and issuerweighted default rates going up in the first quarter of 2018. Nevertheless, the loan market continues to look healthy, with no widespread deterioration at this stage. Loan interest coverage stands at 3.8x compared to the 15-year average of 3.5x and historical low of 2.6x. This is largely the result of heavy refinancing activity last year, which helped drive loan spreads tighter and kept the increase in borrowing costs contained. But with refinancing activity taking a backseat to mergers and acquisitions activity this year, borrowing costs have been increasing. We do not expect meaningful deterioration in loan interest coverage until Libor reaches 3 percent or more, but as recent default activity shows, we could see some early casualties from the steady rise in borrowing costs.
Loan Defaults Are Ticking Higher in 2018 as Rates Rise
Rising rates will have negative consequences for some borrowers. This is highlighted in the recent uptick in default activity, with both the 12-month trailing par and issuer weighted default rates going up in the first quarter of 2018.
Source: S&P LCD, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 3.31.2018. Gray areas represent periods of recession.
—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Christopher Keywork, Managing Director
Important Notices and Disclosures
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
VIDEOS AND PODCASTS
Maria Giraldo, CFA, Managing Director, Investment Research, and Evan Serdensky, Director, Portfolio Management, provide our macro and markets outlook.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"). Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is an affiliate of Guggenheim.
Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
*Assets under management is as of 03.31.2022 and includes leverage of $20.0bn. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Fund Management (Europe) Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.
Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.
Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.
• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value
This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.