/perspectives/sector-views/non-agency-residential-mortgage-backed-securit-(8)

Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS): Solid Ground

Favorable credit trends and market technicals allowed the sector to shrug off slowing housing activity and higher interest rates.

November 19, 2018


This Non-Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities sector report is excerpted from the Fourth Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Non-Agency RMBS prices remained stable in the third quarter as steady demand from investors and dealers allowed the market to shrug off higher mortgage rates and mixed housing data. We remain constructive on the performance prospects for the sector as borrower credit curing and negative net supply should continue to support the market. Higher rates have created a headwind for housing affordability—mortgage rates have increased by 100 basis points in the last 12 months, equating to a 12 percent borrower payment increase on a typical 30-year fixed rate, level pay, fully amortizing mortgage. Although this has caused housing demand to soften recently, longer-term trends of favorable demographics, and limited near-term supply should continue to support housing valuations. The U.S. homeownership rate, has been rising in response to improved economic conditions and increased household formations since bottoming out in 2016. With nationwide affordability near historical averages and supply choked by a decade of depressed new construction, the housing market still appears to be on solid ground.

Household Formations Are Driving Up Homeownership

The U.S. homeownership rate has been rising in response to improved economic conditions and an increase in household formations, particularly among homeowners since bottoming out in 2016.

Household Formations Are Driving Up Homeownership

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 6.30.2018.

The non-Agency RMBS sector outperformed the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate index, posting a 1.4 percent total return for the third quarter and 5 percent year to date. Third-quarter new issuance totaled $18 billion, with year-to-date issuance tracking significantly higher than experienced through the third quarter of 2017. New issue in the third quarter comprised $8 billion of recently originated prime and nonprime RMBS, $7 billion of non- and re-performing loan-backed deals, and $3.5 billion in credit risk transfer. Rising short-term interest rates have syphoned issuance away from non-performing loans (NPL) RMBS and toward prime RMBS. Rising bank deposit costs increase the attractiveness of private-label execution for prime loans relative to balance sheet execution. Conversely, higher short-term interest rates pressured financing costs for sponsors of short tenor NPL-backed deals.

Rising Rates Have Shifted Issuance to Prime RMBS from NPL Deals

Rising bank deposit costs increase the attractiveness of private-label execution for prime loans relative to balance sheet execution. Conversely, higher short-term interest rates pressured financing costs for sponsors of short tenor NPL-backed deals.

Rising Rates Have Shifted Issuance to Prime RMBS from NPL Deals

Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9.30.2018.

Despite our constructive sector view, finding relative value within RMBS remains challenging. Spreads remain near post-crisis tights and the market offers little compensation for bearing increased spread duration, subordination, or idiosyncratic risk. We continue to favor shorter maturity and structurally senior tranches for their lower potential price volatility as well as passthroughs backed by seasoned credit-sensitive collateral types that should benefit from improving credit fundamentals.

—Karthik Narayanan, CFA, Managing Director; Roy Park, Director; Alex Zhang, Vice President

Important Notices and Disclosures

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. ©2018, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

November 19, 2018

Jogging to the Exits

Preparing for the market turbulence that typically occurs in the run up to a recession.

October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.

October 15, 2018

Beneath the Tide of Rising Earnings

Factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth this year will fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds in 2020, exposing leveraged corporate borrowers.


VIDEO

Forecasting the Next Recession 

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"), which includes Security Investors, LLC ("SI"), Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, ("GFIA") and Guggenheim Partners Investment Management ("GPIM") the investment advisers to the referenced funds. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Guggenheim, SI, GFIA and GPIM.

© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.

• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.