/perspectives/weekly-viewpoint/global-concerns-have-investors-russian-for-the-exi

Global Concerns have Investors Russian for the Exits

..

March 17, 2014    |    By Mike Schwager

Performance for Week Ending 3/14/14:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) fell 2.35%, the Wilshire 5000 Total Market IndexSM (Wilshire 5000SM) lost 1.90%, the Standard & Poor’s 500® Index (S&P 500) dipped 1.97% and the NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQ) closed off 2.09%. Sector breadth was negative as 9 of the 10 S&P sector groups finished lower. The Industrials sector (-3.22%) led the way lower followed by Financials (-2.51%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.42%).

Index* Closing Price 3/14/2014 Percentage Change for Week Ending 3/14/2014 Year-to-Date Percentage Change Through 3/14/2014

Dow

16065.67

-2.35%

-3.08%

Wilshire 5000

19280.02

-1.90%

+0.13%

S&P 500

1841.13

-1.97%

-0.39%

NASDAQ

4245.40

-2.09%

+1.65%

*See below for Index Definitions
 

MARKET OBSERVATIONS 3/10/14 - 3/14/14

The major market indices finished the week lower as escalating tension surrounding Russia and the Ukraine coupled with worries over slowing economic growth in China overshadowed signs that the U.S. economy may have moved past the weather-induced slowdown.

The events in the Ukraine continued to weigh on investor sentiment last week as lack of any progress and ongoing saber-rattling from Russia had many investors moving to the safety of the sidelines. While until recently the events have mostly been shrugged off by the domestic markets and have been viewed as more a political event than an economic event, there certainly remains the risk of the situation morphing into the latter. While the Ukraine’s impact on global growth is miniscule, if the country’s financial situation results in a default, it could rattle the already fragile emerging markets. In turn, additional pressure on emerging market economies could ultimately bleed in both the European and U.S. markets. So far the biggest loser in the Russian led invasion of Crimea has been Russia itself, as its stock market has dropped by over 14% in the past two weeks.

The overseas events overshadowed several reports showing the U.S. economy may be moving past the weather related weakness that weighed on growth since the start of the year.  Last week the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.3% during February, a solid snapback from the 0.6% decline posted during the prior month. The rebound in retail sales during February likely reflected pent-up demand resulting from poor weather conditions in January. Data also showed that progress in the labor markets continues. Following the recent rebound in monthly nonfarm payrolls, the Labor Department reported that initial weekly jobless claims fell to 315K, the lowest level since the end of November. The 4-week moving average—which tends to smooth the week to week volatility—fell to 330.5K, the lowest since early December. 

While there are a variety of reasons the market is currently going through a choppy digestion phase – ultimately it is Fundamentals (the economy, earnings, interest rates) that drive the stock market – and in that regard, the macro environment – remains supportive of further gains.


 

Midterm Election Years
2014 marks a mid-term election year. According to data from Strategas Research, midterm election years going back to 1930 are typically characterized by choppy sideways trades during the first nine months of the year followed by solid performance in the final few months. Political posturing and uncertainty going into the election usually keep investors close to the sidelines. Once the outcome to the election becomes clearer, investors are more likely to come back into the markets and position for the outcome. In other words, if history repeats itself, performance this year could be back end loaded.

The Week Ahead
The focal point in the upcoming week will be the two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will also include the latest update to the Fed’s central tendency forecast. The meeting will be followed by the first press conference from new Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. While no surprises are expected to emerge from the FOMC meeting, the committee is expected to reduce their bond buying activity by another $10B/month to $55 billion. The economic data cupboard will be full this week with reports due out on regional manufacturing, housing, inflation and employment. A handful of Fed heads will be out and about next week, with speeches scheduled for St. Louis Fed President Bullard, Dallas Fed President Fisher, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, and Fed Governor Jeremy Stein.

Definitions

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally defined as the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Wilshire 5000 Total Market IndexSM represents the broadest index for the U.S. equity market, measuring the performance of all U.S. equity securities with readily available price data. The index is comprised of virtually every stock that: the firm’s headquarters are based in the U.S.; the stock is actively traded on a U.S. exchange; the stock has widely available pricing information (this disqualifies bulletin board, or over-the-counter stocks). The index is market cap weighted, meaning that the firms with the highest market value account for a larger portion of the index.

Standard and Poor's 500© Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.



Indices do not include any expenses, fees, or sales charges, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices do not include any expenses, fees, or sales charges, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The individual companies mentioned in this piece were for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as recommendations.

The comments should not be construed as a recommendation of individual holdings or market sectors, but as an illustration of broader themes. This document contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no gua rantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the individual strategist. Information in this report does not pertain to any investment product and is not a solicitation for any product. This material has been prepared using sources of information generally believed to be reliable. No representation can be made as to its accuracy.


FEATURED PERSPECTIVES

April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.

March 07, 2019

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding

Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.

January 24, 2019

Amber Lights Flash at Davos

Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.


VIDEO

Forecating the Next Recession 

Forecating the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018 

Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

In his market outlook, Global CIO Scott Minerd discusses the challenges of managing in a market melt up and highlights several charts from his recent piece, “10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018.”







Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"), which includes Security Investors, LLC ("SI"), Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, ("GFIA") and Guggenheim Partners Investment Management ("GPIM") the investment advisers to the referenced funds. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Guggenheim, SI, GFIA and GPIM.

© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.

• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.