The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) gained 0.9 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) lost 2.0 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) finished off 4.6 percent for the week ending June 26. Sector breadth was positive with seven of the 11 S&P sector groups closing higher. The healthcare sector led the gains (7.9 percent), followed by real estate (4.0 percent) and utilities (3.9 percent). On the downside, communication services (down 6.2 percent) was the worst performing.

*See below for Index Definitions

The S&P 500 finished the week lower as a drop in oil prices and signs of economic resilience were offset by weakness in the technology and telecom sectors. Mega-cap technology stocks came under pressure as investors questioned the massive amount of money being spent on the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) platforms and when returns will justify the buildout. Outside of technology related selling, most other sectors finished in the green, suggesting rotation within the broader market and not widespread selling of stocks. Adding to the poor sentiment was an announcement from Apple that the company raised prices across several product lineups, leading to worries over future sales growth and concerns that other technology related companies will follow suit. Lastly, a New York Times report indicated that ChatGPT parent OpenAI could postpone its initial public offering until 2027 due to the recent market volatility.

Fed Speak: Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Goolsbee said he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether all the factors driving prices up are temporary. “We’ve been dealing with an inflation problem that’s well above the target and has been going the wrong way,” Goolsbee said in an interview. New York Fed President Williams said interest rates are well positioned to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s target. “Given the elevated level of inflation, it is imperative that we restore it to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis,” Williams said, calling inflation “unquestionably elevated” due to tariffs, an energy shock from the Iran war, and an investment boom in AI. On Friday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said signs of widespread inflation led him to pencil in one interest-rate increase for this year in the central bank’s economic projections released earlier this month. “I’m concerned about inflation, and it’s not only tied to what’s happening in the Middle East. It’s just the impression of broader inflationary pressures in the economy,” Kashkari said.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled confidence in newly installed Fed Chairman Warsh and predicted that inflation will retreat as the Iran conflict subsides. Asked whether the new Fed chief would face pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, Bessent highlighted that the president said during Warsh’s swearing-in ceremony that he would be independent. Trump understands that “bond markets have taken out more governments than howitzers,” Bessent said, in an apparent reference to the political consequences of inflation-fueled increases in longer-term borrowing costs.

Economic Roundup: Applications for initial unemployment benefits declined more than expected, though volatility around the Juneteenth holiday likely impacted results. Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 215,000 and were solidly below the median estimate for 225,000 claims. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.8 million. Meanwhile, the U.S. private-sector investment cycle remained on firm footing, with core durable goods orders exceeding expectations in May. Durable goods orders fell 4.5 percent while core capital goods orders—a proxy for business spending—rose 1.6 percent, beating the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, showed headline inflation remained elevated, with the personal consumption and expenditures deflator increasing by 0.5 percent in May, boosting the year-on-year inflation pace to 4.1 percent from 3.8 percent in April. The monthly pace of core inflation, which excludes food and energy, jumped to 0.3 percent, resulting in year-on-year growth of 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent in April.

Outlook: While the outlook through the end of the year remains favorable, tactically it wouldn’t be surprising to see the market experience some turbulence through the summer months. In the near term, worries over the AI buildout, tech stock valuations, headline risk around Iran, and elevated levels of inflation are likely to result in choppy trading activity. Even so, based on what we feel is a still favorable macroeconomic environment, we believe the market offers a solid risk/reward profile for longer-term investors, especially on pullbacks. Our focus remains on the building blocks of equity investments—earnings, the economy, and interest rates—all of which we believe will remain supportive in the quarters ahead.

The Week Ahead: The June payroll data will be the focal point of the coming week, with the report coming out on Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. According to Bloomberg, nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 113,000, down from 172,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3 percent. Additional color on the state of the labor market will come from the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday and June ADP data on Wednesday. Other notable data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index as well as the ISM manufacturing index. It will be a quiet week for earnings, with just four members of the S&P 500 scheduled to release results. It will also be a quiet week for Fed speaking engagements, with just one member of the Fed scheduled to speak.

— By Michael Schwager, Chief Market Strategist, Managing Director

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally defined as the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since Oct. 1, 1928.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Nasdaq Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three Nasdaq tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of Feb. 5, 1971.

This material contains opinions of the author, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC, or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Wealth Solutions, LLC, Guggenheim Private Investments, LLC, Guggenheim Investments Loan Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.

©2026 Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved. #5697407