Our latest Macro Themes updates our economic outlook, examining the drivers of growth and emerging risks in the second half of 2026.
Report Highlights
- AI capital spending is fueling U.S. growth but also adding to inflation pressures.
- Energy prices have retreated, though geopolitical risks remain.
- Real income growth is slowing, though tax cuts provide a near-term cushion.
- Real GDP should hold near 2 percent through next year, even as consumer spending softens.
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