Research spotlight on what’s driving our outlook.
In the latest edition of our Quarterly Macro Themes, we examine some of the forces shaping our economic outlook, and their investment implications.
Report Highlights
- Labor productivity, a key economic driver, reflects higher intensity of labor and capital use, but we have yet to see AI-induced efficiency gains generate a macro impact.
- The increase in global government bond yields is a mix of several factors, including resilient global growth, fiscal concerns, and competition for capital from rising AI supply, but after the large increase this year there is limited upside in yields moving forward.
- Yields have risen sharply—reflecting a substantial repricing of the policy rate outlook—but the sell-off makes this a more attractive entry point for fixed income as starting yield is a significant driver of forward return.
- We continue to find better compensation for risk in structured credit, including non-Agency residential mortgage-backed securities and investment grade asset-backed securities where complexity provides excess premium.
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This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
