/perspectives/macroeconomic-research

Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Midyear 2021 Outlook

Brian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch provide our macro and markets outlook.


November 01, 2021

Yield Curve Flattening Carries a Warning About Looming Rate Hike Cycle

The long end of the yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2009.


September 15, 2021

Weak Data and Fiscal Uncertainty Will Delay Fed Tapering

Bond yields could fall further as rising fiscal risks get priced in.


August 18, 2021

Delta Impact on Consumer Behavior Will Delay Tapering Announcement

The resurgent virus should keep a lid on Treasury Yields.


August 11, 2021

Latest CPI Validates the Transitory Nature of Inflation Spikes

Falling demand will help limit the extent of more price increases.


July 14, 2021

Still No Reason to Panic About Inflation

Taking a look at the upside surprise in June’s CPI.


June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.


June 04, 2021

Unpacking the May Jobs Report: Further Progress, but Far from Substantial

A disappointing May jobs report strengthens our conviction that Fed policymakers will stay the course.


May 19, 2021

Inflation Is Spiking, But You Only Reopen the Economy Once 

The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.


May 03, 2021

The Coming Disinflation

Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.


April 05, 2021

Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market

Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.


March 29, 2021

Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.


March 22, 2021

The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve

Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.


March 16, 2021

Inflation: Time For a Reality Check

Our view is that inflation will generally remain subdued in coming years, allowing the Fed to point to cumulative shortfalls from its two percent goal to support delaying the start of policy tightening.


March 11, 2021

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2021

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we are staying on offense.


March 11, 2021

The Best and Worst of Times

Pandemic deaths continue to mount, but vaccine deployment and massive policy support will lift growth in 2021.


November 03, 2020

Guggenheim’s 2020 Election Portfolios

Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We published daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.


January 22, 2020

10 Macroeconomic Themes to Watch in 2020

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.


December 23, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2019

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the risk and reward of “mid-cycle” rate cuts.


December 23, 2019

Signs of Life in Global Manufacturing 

The beleaguered manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement.


September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.


August 22, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2019

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we do not think the current rally in risk assets is sustainable.


August 22, 2019

Fed Cuts Rates as Downside Risks Build

The U.S. economy is strong, but soft inflation and downside risks to growth prompted the first Fed rate cut since 2008.


June 17, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2019

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe near-term market strength is an opportunity to reduce risk.


June 17, 2019

Will the Fed’s Pivot Save the Day?

Despite the Fed’s dovish turn, our recession forecasting tools still point to recession starting in six to 12 months.


April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.


March 07, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.


March 07, 2019

It’s All Downhill from Here

Global growth has peaked, but a tight U.S. labor market will ultimately prompt the Fed to tighten again.


January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.


November 19, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2018

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe it is time to start jogging to the exits.


November 19, 2018

Rising Rates Are Beginning to Bite

Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.


October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.


August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost 

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.


August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.


August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.


May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.


May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.


May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.


February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.


February 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Introducing our analytical tools for estimating the timing of the next recession.


November 14, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2017

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.


November 14, 2017

Normalizing Today, Overshooting Tomorrow

A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.


August 16, 2017

Market Yawns as Fed Tees Up Balance Sheet Runoff

Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.


August 16, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2017

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.


August 07, 2017

The Transition Away from Libor

Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.


May 19, 2017

Fed Likely to Stay the Course

A tightening labor market and near-target inflation will keep the Fed on track even as fiscal policy sputters.


February 17, 2017

Factoring in Late-Cycle Fiscal Stimulus

The Fed will likely need to hike rates at a faster pace than the markets are pricing in.


January 23, 2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.


December 15, 2016

Expecting More 2017 Hikes than the Market

Markets will be grappling with a tightening labor market, rising inflation, and, not least, a new administration.


August 17, 2016

Steady as She Goes

Our third-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook indicates that a strong U.S. consumer combined with a wary Fed and global stimulus should support U.S. credit markets.


May 24, 2016

Expansion Continues Despite Weak Q1

U.S. economic growth was below trend in the first quarter, but our second-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook calls for a rebound in the second half of 2016.


March 17, 2016

The U.S. Economy Is Fundamentally Sound

Our first-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook suggests recession fears are overblown, and that the oil market should rebalance in the second half.


January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.


January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Our research suggests the massive El Niño weather pattern has the potential to add 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter.







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