/perspectives/macroeconomic-research

Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


November 19, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2018

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe it is time to start jogging to the exits.


November 19, 2018

Rising Rates Are Beginning to Bite

Rising rates are hurting the most rate-sensitive sectors in a preview of the bigger slowdown headed our way.


October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.


August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost 

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.


August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.


August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.


May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.


May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.


May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.


February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.


February 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.


November 14, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2017

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.


November 14, 2017

Normalizing Today, Overshooting Tomorrow

A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.


August 16, 2017

Market Yawns as Fed Tees Up Balance Sheet Runoff

Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.


August 16, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2017

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.


August 07, 2017

The Transition Away from Libor

Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.


May 19, 2017

Fed Likely to Stay the Course

A tightening labor market and near-target inflation will keep the Fed on track even as fiscal policy sputters.


February 17, 2017

Factoring in Late-Cycle Fiscal Stimulus

The Fed will likely need to hike rates at a faster pace than the markets are pricing in.


January 23, 2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.


December 15, 2016

Expecting More 2017 Hikes than the Market

Markets will be grappling with a tightening labor market, rising inflation, and, not least, a new administration.


August 17, 2016

Steady as She Goes

Our third-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook indicates that a strong U.S. consumer combined with a wary Fed and global stimulus should support U.S. credit markets.


May 24, 2016

Expansion Continues Despite Weak Q1

U.S. economic growth was below trend in the first quarter, but our second-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook calls for a rebound in the second half of 2016.


March 17, 2016

The U.S. Economy Is Fundamentally Sound

Our first-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook suggests recession fears are overblown, and that the oil market should rebalance in the second half.


January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.


January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Our research suggests the massive El Niño weather pattern has the potential to add 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter.







Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"), which includes Security Investors, LLC ("SI"), Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, ("GFIA") and Guggenheim Partners Investment Management ("GPIM") the investment advisers to the referenced funds. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, an affiliate of Guggenheim, SI, GFIA and GPIM.

© Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.

Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.

• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.