/perspectives


Portfolio Strategy    |   November 19, 2018

Jogging to the Exits

Fixed-Income Outlook: Preparing for the market turbulence that typically occurs in the run up to a recession.


Macroeconomic Research    |   October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.


Sector Views    |   October 15, 2018

Beneath the Tide of Rising Earnings

High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook: Factors that have contributed to strong earnings growth this year will fade in 2019 and turn into headwinds in 2020, exposing leveraged corporate borrowers.


Global CIO Outlook    |   July 30, 2018

Welcome, Immigrants. The U.S. Really Needs You

To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.


Global CIO Outlook    |   July 17, 2018

No One Wins a Trade War

If you want to see who the real victims of tariffs are, go look in the mirror.


Portfolio Strategy    |   July 09, 2018

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Shortening duration, maintaining an investment-grade portfolio, and generating attractive yields do not have to be competing investment objectives for core fixed-income investors.


Global CIO Outlook    |   March 26, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Prepare for when the effects of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and monetary policy keeps getting more restrictive.


VIDEO

Forecasting the Next Recession

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Watch Video

Fixed Income Outlook

Fourth Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Steve Brown and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the fourth quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook.

Watch Video


August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.

January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.



Global CIO Outlook    |   April 26, 2018

Seeking a Return on Sustainable Development

A framework for transitioning sustainable investing to an institutional asset class.


Portfolio Strategy    |   April 05, 2017

Understanding Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

Explaining the structure and investor-friendly features of collateralized loan obligations, an often misunderstood sector of structured credit.


Portfolio Strategy    |   August 08, 2017

The ABCs of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)

Finding value in complexity: The structure, risks, and investor-friendly features of asset-backed securities.




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