Macroeconomic Research

First Quarter 2026 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.

Quarterly Macro Themes, a quarterly publication by our Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy Group, explores critical and timely areas of research and updates our baseline views on the economy.

  • With the Mideast conflict raging, geopolitical risks remain front and center. 
  • The AI investment boom will continue in 2026, but so will disruption.
  • The economy will move into equilibrium as solid demand is met with solid supply.  
  • The labor market has steadied but is not out of the woods.
  • Cooling inflation should pave the way for rate cuts.

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This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.