/perspectives/sector-views/q2-2024-fixed-income-sector-views

Second Quarter 2024 Fixed-Income Sector Views

Balancing attractive yields and tight spreads.

May 29, 2024


Fixed-Income Sector Views

Second Quarter 2024

A common theme across our sector team reports this quarter is that while spreads have been grinding tighter, yields remain high and attractive. Even as they tighten, spreads in high grade sectors remain wide relative to fundamental risk. Favored sectors include non-Agency RMBS, senior CLOs, commercial ABS, current coupon RMBS, syndicated loans, high quality high yield and certain parts of the investment grade corporate market. We find the front end and belly of the yield curve look most attractive as Fed easing expectations have been pushed back, which aligns with our longer-term expectation that the curve will bull-steepen as these expectations start to move toward rate cuts.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. During periods of declining rates, the interest rates on floating rate securities generally reset downward and their value is unlikely to rise to the same extent as comparable fixed rate securities. Investors in asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and other structured finance investments generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate at which the underlying borrowers pay off their loans. Some asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, causing their prices to be volatile. These instruments are particularly subject to interest rate, credit and liquidity and valuation risks. High yield bonds may present additional risks because these securities may be less liquid, and therefore more difficult to value accurately and sell at an advantageous price or time, and present more credit risk than investment grade bonds. The price of high yield securities tends to be subject to greater volatility due to issuer-specific operating results and outlook and to real or perceived adverse economic and competitive industry conditions. Bank loans, including loan syndicates and other direct lending opportunities, involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, counterparty risk and prepayment risk. Loans may offer a fixed or floating interest rate. Loans are often generally below investment grade, may be unrated, and can be difficult to value accurately and may be more susceptible to liquidity risk than fixed-income instruments of similar credit quality and/or maturity. Municipal bonds may be subject to credit, interest, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. In addition, municipal securities can be affected by unfavorable legislative or political developments and adverse changes in the economic and fiscal conditions of state and municipal issuers or the federal government in case it provides financial support to such issuers. A company’s preferred stock generally pays dividends only after the company makes required payments to holders of its bonds and other debt. For this reason, the value of preferred stock will usually react more strongly than bonds and other debt to actual or perceived changes in the company’s financial condition or prospects. Investments in real estate securities are subject to the same risks as direct investments in real estate, which is particularly sensitive to economic downturns.

S&P bond ratings are measured on a scale that ranges from AAA (highest) to D (lowest). Bonds rated BBB- and above are considered investment-grade while bonds rated BB+ and below are considered speculative grade.

One basis point is equal to 0.01 percent. Likewise, 100 basis points equals 1 percent. Beta is a statistical measure of volatility relative to the overall market. A positive beta indicates movement in the same direction as the market, while a negative beta indicates movement inverse to the market. Beta for the market is generally considered to be 1. A beta above 1 and below -1 indicates more volatility than the market. A beta between 1 to -1 indicates less volatility than the market. Carry is the difference between the cost of financing an asset and the interest received on that asset. Dry powder refers to highly liquid assets, such as cash or money market instruments, that can be invested when more attractive investment opportunities arise.

© 2024, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is an affiliate of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. For information, call 800.345.7999 or 800.820.0888.

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Navigating an economic cycle where old patterns don’t seem to apply.

May 08, 2024

Learning from Turning Points in Monetary Policy

The Case for Moving Into Higher Quality Fixed Income (and out of Money Markets and Equities) While the Fed Is Paused… and Ahead of Coming Rate Cuts.

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A time for nimble credit selection.


VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking? 

Are Fixed-Income Investors Being Compensated for the Risks They Are Taking?

Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist for Guggenheim Investments, joins Asset TV’s Fixed Income Masterclass.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 53: The Wide Opportunity Set in Bonds and Asymmetric Future Fed Policy

It’s been 10 months since the Fed’s last rate hike and Evan Serdensky, Portfolio Manager on our Total Return team, and Matt Bush, our U.S. Economist, join Macro Markets to discuss what’s next for the economy and markets.







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Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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