/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/11-macroeconomic-themes-for-2024

11 Macroeconomic Themes for 2024

11 trends that will shape credit markets in 2024.

January 11, 2024


Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 11 macroeconomic trends we believe are likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

  1. Record Global Elections and Geopolitical Instability Will Lift Economic Uncertainty
  2. Technological Innovation and Competition Will Continue to Transform the Economy
  3. Massive Treasury Issuance Will Continue to Weigh on Rates and Crowd Out Other Issuers
  4. The End of the ‘Free Money’ Era Will Burst Lingering Asset Price Bubbles
  5. Commercial Real Estate Stress Will Intensify and Spill Over to Small Banks
  6. Private Credit Will Cannibalize Banks' Role in Leveraged Credit Further
  7. Resilience Gives Way to Bifurcation
  8. Negative Money Supply Growth and Draining of RRP Are Key Risks and May Usher in Deflation
  9. Soft Landing Hopes Will Give Way to (Mild) Recession
  10. Fed Easing Cycle Will Drive Long-End Rates Lower Than Anticipated
  11. Out of Chaos Comes Opportunity in Fixed Income
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