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Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Outlook

As accommodative monetary policy by central banks around the world suppresses interest rates, in some cases into negative territory, U.S. investments with positive yields are a beacon for foreign investors. As capital flows into the U.S. market, interest rates are pushed lower and asset prices driven higher. In this video, Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses how these conditions are helping bolster an already strong U.S. economy, and how the outlook for Europe and emerging markets is shifting in response.

 
August 24, 2016

A New Policy Orthodoxy Is Emerging

Central bank policies implemented in the near-term may seem extreme today, but they will likely soon become policy orthodoxy.

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June 28, 2016

Brexit Reaction: Keep Calm and Carry On

In the long run there are certainly issues to be sorted through, but in the short run Brexit is a buying opportunity.

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May 26, 2016

Why the G7 May Be Hastening Helicopter Money

Faced with a sharply appreciating yen, and lacking G7 support, Japan may need to take extreme measures.

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May 20, 2016

Sustainable Development: The Future of Investing

Smart, strategic investments in sustainable development today can deliver strong, stable returns, and make the world a better place.

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May 03, 2016

Complacency in Uncharted Waters

The next challenge for central bankers is changing monetary policy when the economy has come to depend on it.

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April 07, 2016

The Global Liquidity Trap Turns More Treacherous

Combined with negative interest rates, fiscal and regulatory policies are doing little to support growth, and in most cases are restraining it.

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February 23, 2016

The Great Recession Scare of 2016

Our research tells us that beyond this spike in energy defaults fundamental conditions are copacetic, yet the markets and policymakers are reacting as if recession or full-blown financial crisis were at the gates, if not already upon us. Investors should remember that a market decline does not necessarily portend a recession. For those of us who remember, after the market crash of October 1987 the next U.S. recession was still two years away, creating a great buying opportunity.

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February 05, 2016

The Endgame for Oil

In the fourth quarter of 2014, I asserted that a barrel of oil would average $45 during 2015 and 2016. Given the nature of the growing supply glut and OPEC’s unwillingness to cooperate on reducing output, I also projected that there was risk of a spike down to $25 per barrel before prices would stabilize. While far from consensus, my pessimism at the time now smacks of optimism. Today, looking at the market fundamentals in place, I believe we have reached a new point in the global energy story: The endgame in the decline of the price of oil.

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January 21, 2016

Storm Clouds Over Davos

Policymakers have precious little time to address the issue and bring this current debt episode to an orderly end. Historical evidence of success in resolving these types of issues is sparse. Quite simply, the world is in trouble and the leaders at Davos know it.

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January 20, 2016

Cooler Heads Will Prevail, Even as Markets Panic

Panic is a key indicator of a market bottom. Panic is associated with sharp increases in trading volumes as investors fearing further decline seek to liquidate positions. That kind of selling causes volatility to spike, as price movements accelerate to the downside. None of this has been associated with the decline to the start of 2016, which tells me we have more downside before we see bottom.

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