The NDR Thematic Opportunities Portfolio, Series 4 ("Trust") seeks to maximize total return primarily through capital appreciation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Investors' units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy: nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state where the offer, solicitation, or sale is not permitted.
Principal Investment Strategy
The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a portfolio of U.S.- listed common stocks that may be in a position to take advantage of current thematic opportunities. The Sponsor has partnered with Ned Davis Research, Inc. (“NDR”) as portfolio consultant. NDR will identify investment themes and suggest securities for the portfolio that it believes possess the potential to benefit from the investment themes and market conditions as of the security selection date.
An investment theme is a market idea that has the potential of selecting securities of companies that may be poised to outperform the broader market. The investment themes will be specific and constant within the Trust, as selected on the security selection date. The inspiration for a theme may be drawn from any number of professional disciplines. NDR regularly publishes investment research across a broad spectrum of asset classes, markets, geographies and industries. The themes that emerge from this research become the building blocks for the thematic opportunities. The themes are selected by (in decreasing order of importance):
• Likelihood of success/outperformance
• Time horizon that most closely matches that of the Trust
• Diversification and interaction (correlation) with the other themes
The U.S.-listed common stocks held by the Trust may include common stocks of U.S. and non-U.S. companies. The Trust may invest in issuers of any market capitalization. There can be no assurance that the investment themes identified will come to fruition, that any security held by the Trust will benefit directly from a current thematic opportunity or that the Trust will meet its objective.
As a result of this strategy, the Trust is concentrated in the financials sector and invests significantly in the information technology and energy sectors.
NDR begins the security selection process by identifying current market themes that its strategists believe may outperform the broader market over the term of the Trust. These themes are picked by NDR macroeconomic and equity strategists from a larger pool of NDR strategists’ themes.
The themes selected by NDR for this Trust are:
• A rising interest rate environment
• Bullish upstream energy stocks
• “Safe haven” stocks
NDR then employs multiple processes designed to select specific securities that it believes will benefit more than other securities if one or more of the investment themes play out as predicted. NDR’s primary method of identifying the relevant securities to represent the theme(s) is by using the industry classification of the individual securities. Since most stocks can be classified by the industry in which they operate, NDR aligns the theme with the relevant industry(s). This selection is made by both qualitative (categorization) and quantitative (correlations of securities with industry(s)) criteria.
The sectors/industries that NDR believes may benefit from the investment themes are:
• Financials sector, which may benefit from interest-rate sensitive margins expanding and credit conditions easing.
• Energy sector, which may benefit from oil and gas drillers, as well as exploration and productions companies, potentially benefiting from higher oil prices.
• Consumer staples, health care, materials and utilities sectors, which may outperform when the stock market is volatile or a market correction may be likely.
• Information technology sector, which may benefit from an increased demand for products and services that combat cyber attacks.
Once the favored industries have been identified, NDR reduces the broader universe down to the final recommended 40 securities using the criteria below. NDR analysts utilize fundamental, technical, and/or macroeconomic factors to rank the filtered securities.
• Fundamental factors pertain to the economics of the specific business and are typically drawn from the financial statements (i.e., income statement, balance sheet, etc.). Some common factors are, but are not limited to, earnings growth, dividend payout ratio and debt/equity ratio.
• Technical factors pertain to the trading of the security in the capital markets. Technical factors are used to evaluate the supply and demand for the security. Some common factors are, but are not limited to, price momentum, mean reversion or level of volume of shares traded.
• Macroeconomic factors pertain to the broader economy in which a security trades. These are factors which influence the environment in which a business operates. Some common factors are, but are not limited to, interest rates, the level of employment and fiscal/monetary policy.
For purposes of selecting securities for the Trust, NDR focuses on two factor groups:
• Quality. Examples include, but are not limited to, stocks with lower price/earnings multiples, higher earnings growth, stable cash flows and positive momentum.
• Relevant economic cycle: stock performance varies across the business/market cycle. An example could be selecting higher beta (or volatile) stocks during the earlier portion of an economic recovery or bull market.
NDR applies these processes against the universe of liquid, U.S.-listed common stocks that trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX stock exchanges. American depositary receipts and global depositary receipts are not eligible for inclusion in the portfolio. NDR ranks each security that passed the theme/industry filters according to quality and relevant economic cycle. For example, a stock with a lower price/earnings ratio would receive a higher score because a lower price/earnings ratio suggests a better value. For the relevant economic cycle example, if the markets were in the early stages of a bull market, a stock with a higher beta (relative to other securities) may receive a higher score. NDR combines these factor scores for each stock and selects the 40 highest-ranked stocks for recommendation for inclusion in the Trust. NDR uses the strength of the factor score/rank to determine initial recommended weightings in the portfolio by having a higher score equal a larger weight. Finally, after completing this initial portfolio selection process, NDR reviews and evaluates the selected stocks and determines their final recommended weighting in the Trust with the assistance of a statistical risk analysis process. The risk analysis process identifies the risk that can be reduced through diversification and determines the optimal weights for each recommended security in the Trust.
Ned Davis Research
NDR is an independent, institutional research company. Founded in 1980, NDR has provided institutional investors with unbiased and unaffiliated investment research. NDR provides a disciplined approach to in-depth financial analysis, which is supported by the sophisticated proprietary analytic tools that marry fundamental and technical research. Research ranges from asset allocation, to sector and industry groups, individual stocks, economic, and quantitative research. NDR maintains clients in over 30 countries, and serves over 1,100 institutional clients at investment firms, banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, hedge funds, pension and endowment funds, registered investment advisors and equity research departments.
NDR also provides custom research solutions that offers personalized research analysis ranging from sophisticated asset allocation models to simple charts and data retrieval. NDR works with clients to create ideas to address research needs and act as a supplemental resource to proprietary strategy.
Risks and Other Considerations
As with all investments, you may lose some or all of your investment in the Trust. No assurance can be given that the Trust’s investment objective will be achieved. The Trust also might not perform as well as you expect. This can happen for reasons such as these:
• Securities prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may fall over time. Market value fluctuates in response to various factors. These can include stock market movements, purchases or sales of securities by the Trust, government policies, litigation, and changes in interest rates, inflation, the financial condition of the securities’ issuer or even perceptions of the issuer. Units of the Trust are not deposits of any bank and are not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency.
• Securities selected according to this strategy may not perform as intended. The Trust is exposed to additional risk due to its policy of investing in accordance with an investment strategy. Although the Trust’s investment strategy is designed to achieve the Trust’s investment objective, the strategy may not prove to be successful. The investment decisions may not produce the intended results and there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved.
• The Trust is concentrated in the financial sector. As a result, the factors that impact the financial sector will likely have a greater effect on this Trust than on a more broadly diversified Trust. Companies in the financial sector include banks, insurance companies and investment firms. The profitability of companies in the financial sector is largely dependent upon the availability and cost of capital which may fluctuate significantly in response to changes in interest rates and general economic developments. Financial sector companies are especially subject to the adverse effects of economic recession, decreases in the availability of capital, volatile interest rates, portfolio concentrations in geographic markets and in commercial and residential real estate loans, and competition from new entrants in their fields of business.
• The Trust invests significantly in the information technology sector. As a result, the factors that impact the information technology sector will likely have a greater effect on this Trust than on a more broadly diversified Trust. Companies involved in this sector must contend with rapid changes in technology, intense competition, government regulation and the rapid obsolescence of products and services. Furthermore, sector predictions may not materialize and the companies selected for the Trust may not represent the entire sector and may not participate in the overall sector growth.
• The Trust invests significantly in the energy sector. As a result, the factors that impact the energy sector will likely have a greater effect on this Trust than on a more broadly diversified Trust. Companies in the energy sector are subject to volatile fluctuations in price and supply of energy fuels, and can be impacted by international politics and conflicts, including the unrest and hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist attacks, the success of exploration projects, reduced demand as a result of increases in energy efficiency and energy conservation, natural disasters, clean-up and litigation costs associated with environmental damage and extensive regulation.
• The Trust invests in securities issued by small-capitalization and mid-capitalization companies. These securities customarily involve more investment risk than securities of large-capitalization companies. Small-capitalization and mid-capitalization companies may have limited product lines, markets or financial resources and may be more vulnerable to adverse general market or economic developments.
• Share prices or dividend rates on the securities in the Trust may decline during the life of the Trust. There is no guarantee that share prices of the securities in the Trust will not decline and that the issuers of the securities will declare dividends in the future and, if declared, whether they will remain at current levels or increase over time.
• Inflation may lead to a decrease in the value of assets or income from investments.
• The Sponsor does not actively manage the portfolio. The Trust will generally hold, and may, when creating additional units, continue to buy, the same securities even though a security’s outlook, market value or yield may have changed.
See “Investment Risks” in Part A of the prospectus and “Risk Factors” in Part B of the prospectus for additional information.
Please see the Trust prospectus for more complete risk information.
Unit Investment Trusts are fixed, not actively managed and should be considered as part of a long-term strategy. Investors should consider their ability to invest in successive portfolios, if available, at the applicable sales charge. UITs are subject to annual fund operating expenses in addition to the sales charge. Investors should consult an attorney or tax advisor regarding tax consequences associated with an investment from one series to the next, if available, and with the purchase or sale of units. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC does not offer tax advice.
Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.
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