Economic Fundamentals Suggest Higher Yield
Historically, the real yield on 10-year Treasuries has closely tracked the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The correlation broke down, however, in 4Q2011, as a result of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program. The yield on 10-year Treasuries would be roughly 150 basis points higher than it is today if the market was not being distorted by Ponzi (uneconomic) buying.
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE VS. REAL 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD*