/perspectives/global-cio-outlook?page=8

Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


 

The Sustainable Development Quotient

Scott Minerd discusses the importance of transitioning sustainable development into an institutional asset class.


September 19, 2013

The Fed’s About-Face

The Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper quantitative easing telegraphed a mixed signal to markets about policy guidance while tempering forward economic growth expectations. Dramatically lower interest rates can be expected.


September 17, 2013

Rising Interest Rates Must End Soon

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen by more than 84 percent from May to early September, one of the most violent and rapid increases on record. This spike has caused severe convulsions in the bond market, leading many investors to wonder how long the torment can last. If history is our guide, the answer is that it may be over soon. Investors would be wise to remember that “soon” is a period of time, not a matter of degree. I make this point to be clear that while long-term interest rates still have room to increase in this historic bear market—maybe even significantly—now may be the most opportune time to purchase longer duration fixed-income securities in the past two years.


September 05, 2013

The Growth Mirage

Despite disappointing economic data, there continue to be widespread expectations of a period of stronger economic growth just ahead. This growth mirage draws thirsty investors and increases the likelihood that interest rates will continue rising over the near-term.


July 31, 2013

The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The value of the Fed’s portfolio has fallen by about $192 billion as a result of the rise in interest rates over the past quarter. Further losses from rising interest rates could compromise the Fed’s ability to engage in monetary tightening should market conditions warrant such action.


July 10, 2013

Turmoil and Transition in China

Tensions in Asia are rising, as China attempts to move toward a more market driven economy. This, combined with the ongoing ultra loose monetary conditions in Japan, has elevated the threat of a financial crisis in the region between now and the end of 2013.


July 08, 2013

The Fed's Bind: Tapering, Timetables and Turmoil

There are striking parallels between the dramatic recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and the Great Bond Crash of 1994. But the summer of volatility now facing financial markets is no doomsday scenario. Instead, it puts the U.S. Federal Reserve in a bind. Higher interest rates will reduce housing affordability, which is especially troublesome since housing is the primary locomotive of U.S. economic growth. That means the Fed, despite Ben Bernanke’s recently announced timetable, may be forced to expand or extend quantitative easing if the housing market’s response to recent events becomes more acute and starts to negatively affect the job market recovery.


June 18, 2013

The Trouble with Tapering

Rising interest rates are beginning to put pressure on the recovery in the housing market, which will affect economic output. This reduces the likelihood that the Fed will taper QE in 2013, and could even lead it to signal a possible expansion or extension of the current policies.


June 12, 2013

The Instability of Stability

Hyman Minsky’s scholarship holds valuable lessons for the current dynamic in the economy. The Fed, via QE, continues to induce speculative buying in the Treasury market, which is having the effect of destabilizing a number of asset classes.


June 05, 2013

The Fed's Dilemma

Market volatility is rising as the Fed continues with its asset purchase program. The economy also appears increasingly vulnerable to a rise in interest rates, which would have an adverse effect on housing in particular.


June 03, 2013

The Canary in the Coal Mine

Ongoing monetary stimulus is leading to heightened volatility, and the bull market which has been in place since 2009 is becoming overextended. The recent string of surprise downside moves in markets may be the canary in the coal mine for global investors.

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