/perspectives/global-cio-outlook?page=8

Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


 

The Sustainable Development Quotient

Scott Minerd discusses the importance of transitioning sustainable development into an institutional asset class.


March 19, 2014

The Song Remains the Same

The noisy journey from winter to spring in the United States may mask the underlying strength in the U.S. economy. The risk-on environment should remain intact, despite international tensions.


March 05, 2014

The Briefest Flight to Safety

Tensions in Ukraine and tapering speculation seem unlikely to derail rising U.S. equity markets and the positive outlook for U.S. credit.


November 20, 2013

The Fed and the Economy: “Don’t Shoot Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes”

The Federal Reserve has started to highlight “forward guidance” as a way to keep interest rates lower for longer – and get the exhausted hamster off the treadmill of quantitative easing. We still think tapering remains farther off than most investors expect.


November 14, 2013

Taper or Not, Stocks and Bonds Could Gain

Both bond and equity markets are well-positioned, regardless of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve tapers its asset purchase program.


October 09, 2013

Tipping the Scale Toward High Yield Bonds

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision in September to delay at least for now any reduction in its asset purchases drove U.S. Treasury rates down materially from the highs seen over the summer, easing concerns about the impact of higher rates on economic growth. Now as we start the fourth quarter, the below-investment grade investment outlook appears positive, and more positive for high yield bonds than bank loans.


September 19, 2013

The Fed’s About-Face

The Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper quantitative easing telegraphed a mixed signal to markets about policy guidance while tempering forward economic growth expectations. Dramatically lower interest rates can be expected.


September 17, 2013

Rising Interest Rates Must End Soon

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen by more than 84 percent from May to early September, one of the most violent and rapid increases on record. This spike has caused severe convulsions in the bond market, leading many investors to wonder how long the torment can last. If history is our guide, the answer is that it may be over soon. Investors would be wise to remember that “soon” is a period of time, not a matter of degree. I make this point to be clear that while long-term interest rates still have room to increase in this historic bear market—maybe even significantly—now may be the most opportune time to purchase longer duration fixed-income securities in the past two years.


September 05, 2013

The Growth Mirage

Despite disappointing economic data, there continue to be widespread expectations of a period of stronger economic growth just ahead. This growth mirage draws thirsty investors and increases the likelihood that interest rates will continue rising over the near-term.


July 31, 2013

The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The value of the Fed’s portfolio has fallen by about $192 billion as a result of the rise in interest rates over the past quarter. Further losses from rising interest rates could compromise the Fed’s ability to engage in monetary tightening should market conditions warrant such action.


July 10, 2013

Turmoil and Transition in China

Tensions in Asia are rising, as China attempts to move toward a more market driven economy. This, combined with the ongoing ultra loose monetary conditions in Japan, has elevated the threat of a financial crisis in the region between now and the end of 2013.

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