/perspectives/global-cio-outlook?page=9

Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


 

Fed Decision Day: Policy Has Reshaped Markets

Scott Minerd joins Bloomberg TV on Fed Day to discuss central bank policy as the U.S. economy begins its long recovery.


December 16, 2014

A Tale of Two Markets

Investors should prepare for an extended period of depressed oil prices—oil still has substantial downside room to run before reaching a level of stability. As oil continues its decline, pressure is increasingly mounting on credit markets, especially high-yield corporate bonds, where energy-related borrowers represent 15-20 percent of the market. The flip side is that as spreads widen, we get closer to the levels where large investors start to see value.


December 04, 2014

The Dark Side to Falling Oil Prices

Russia needs oil at $100 a barrel to support its economy, and many other oil-dependent economies rely on oil prices well north of current levels. A recession in countries such as Russia will have significant knock-on effects, particularly for European exporters, creating another headwind for the beleaguered euro zone economies. An oil-price-induced negative feedback loop would stifle global growth and could even lead to political instability in any number of oil-dependent nations.


October 28, 2014

Europe Must Act Now

Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. Quantitative easing in Europe is coming, but too slowly to avert a severe slowdown and perhaps even a hard landing. Mario Draghi, ECB president, has made it clear that the ECB must increase its balance sheet by at least €1 trillion—a tough mandate as the balance sheet will continue to shrink in the coming year as the earlier longer-term refinancing operation assets roll off. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another €1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough.


October 02, 2014

Banquo’s Grain and U.S. Interest Rates

The U.S. economy is strong enough to suggest higher interest rates ahead, but a number of factors suggest U.S. Treasury yields could move lower.


September 18, 2014

Why the Pennant Race Could Coincide with Market Volatility

While the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, investors should nevertheless brace for volatility in the next few weeks.


August 19, 2014

Don’t Fight the U.S. Treasury Rally

A number of factors seem likely to drive U.S. 10-year Treasury rates lower in the near term, including increasing demand, decreasing supply, and tension in Ukraine and Iraq that is triggering a flight to quality. As Treasury yields fall, a wave of mortgage refinancing could drive yields even lower, creating a compelling opportunity to rebalance portfolios.


July 24, 2014

The Hangover

The Fed’s not taking the punch bowl from the party, but investors should be wary of the hangover.


July 16, 2014

The Tolling Bells of Complacency

A few years ago, facing a world in crisis, central banks aggressively employed monetary policy to avoid catastrophe in financial markets. Now, they must be equally aggressive in fighting complacency.


July 02, 2014

The Outlook for Yields

As U.S. economic growth gathers pace, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries should shift higher over the next two to three years, eventually moving as high as 3.75-4 percent.


June 25, 2014

The Signal and the Noise

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are dismissing as “noise” signs that inflation pressure is building, but perhaps they should be listening more closely.

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