High-Yield Corporate Bonds: Cracks Are Forming
Investors should continue to limit exposure to CCCs despite recent cheapening because of the asymmetry of potential spread outcomes.
In recent years a decline in U.S. manufacturing activity has tended to coincide with widening high-yield credit spreads, but that has not been the case this year. High-yield spreads tightened 5 basis points over the third quarter of 2019 and as of Oct. 18 are 122 basis points tighter since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession, with several consecutive months of ISM Manufacturing PMI prints below 50, but credit spreads remain tight at the index level.
Spreads Resist the Slowdown in Manufacturing Activity
The U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession, with several consecutive months of ISM Manufacturing PMI prints below 50, but credit spreads remain tight at the index level. Similar slumps in manufacturing activity have resulted in spread widening, but that has not been the case this year.
Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays Indexes, Credit Suisse. Data as of 9.30.2019.
Similar slumps in manufacturing activity have resulted in spread widening, but that has not been the case this year. Nevertheless, spreads have widened for CCC-rated bonds, signaling rising concern about credit.
The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch High-Yield Constrained index delivered a return of 1.2 percent in the third quarter, bringing total returns to 11.5 percent year to date. The best year-to-date performance has come from BBs, with a total return of 13.0 percent, followed by single Bs with a return of 11.2 percent, and finally CCCs, trailing with a total return of 6.0 percent. For the quarter, CCCs lost 2.4 percent, while BBs and Bs held on to positive returns of 2.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
Averaging almost 1,000 basis points in the third quarter, CCC spreads appear to be on a path similar to late 2015, when spreads ultimately peaked at 2,000 basis points. Current CCC spreads might look appealing to those who do not foresee a repeat of 2015–2016, but our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group believes the data show the economy is in a vulnerable place that could easily tip credit into another recession-like scenario. Weighing the upside potential of spreads tightening against the downside that they may widen another 1,000+ basis points, CCC spreads do not compensate investors for the risk. Instead, we continue to find value in BBs, and especially single Bs, which are not trading as much above par as BBs.
The Asymmetry of Potential Spread Outcomes Looks Unappealing
Weighing the upside potential of spreads tightening against the downside that they may widen another 1,000+ basis points, CCC spreads do not compensate investors for the risk.
Source: Guggenheim Investments, ICE Index Services. Data as of 10.18.2019. Shaded area represents recession.
—Thomas Hauser, Senior Managing Director; Rich de Wet, Director
Important Notices and Disclosures
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The authors’ opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk. In general, the value of fixed-income securities fall when interest rates rise. High-yield securities present more liquidity and credit risk than investment grade bonds and may be subject to greater volatility. Asset-backed securities, including mortgage-backed securities, may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity risk. Investments in floating rate senior secured syndicated bank loans and other floating rate securities involve special types of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and prepayment risk. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.
©2019, Guggenheim Partners, LLC. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, and Portfolio Manager Steve Brown share their outlook for the third quarter 2020.
Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.
Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ("Guggenheim"). Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is an affiliate of Guggenheim.
Read a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the investment objective, risks charges, expenses and the other information, which should be considered carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) click here or call 800.820.0888.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
*Assets under management is as of 12.31.2020 and includes leverage of $13.7bn. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.
Guggenheim Investments. All rights reserved.
Research our firm with FINRA Broker Check.
• Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value
This website is directed to and intended for use by citizens or residents of the United States of America only. The material provided on this website is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.