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Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


 

“A Drunk Man in the Snow”: The Random Walk of Interest Rates

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, joins CNBC for an exclusive two-part interview to discuss his view on rates and a new CIO Outlook.


September 14, 2015

The Fed's Dilemma

Twice in the past 30 years the U.S. Federal Reserve has faced the prospect of prematurely abandoning tightening during market turmoil. Today, global currency devaluations, market volatility, and plunging commodity prices have trapped the Fed in a similar policy dilemma.


August 23, 2015

A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets

The recent global equity market selloff reflects a long-awaited—and I believe ultimately healthy—market correction. A number of commentators speculated that after Monday morning’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the intra-day reversal indicated that we reached a bottom. In the very short run, I would agree. However, longer term, neither fundamental nor technical data support that we have reached the levels of capitulation associated with the end of a market correction.


August 20, 2015

Pressure Mounts on China to Act

More bad news out of Asia: Chinese manufacturing conditions are back at the same levels as they were at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, a clear sign that China’s economy is slowing. We all know the dramatic steps that were necessary to revive the Chinese economy in 2009—a 4 trillion renminbi (RMB) stimulus package, equivalent to about 12 percent of China’s annual gross domestic product at the time. China will need to take drastic action again, and to a greater degree than it has done in recent weeks.


August 16, 2015

Fundamental Truths

Last week, China loosened control of its currency, resulting in its biggest one-day loss in two decades, compounded by additional losses over the following days. As of this writing, the renminbi has depreciated by close to 3 percent since the start of last week. This “surprise” move roiled markets and triggered concern that other central banks would follow suit, but the reality is that the fundamentals were so overwhelming that the People’s Bank of China’s action was practically unavoidable.


August 06, 2015

Keep Your Powder Dry

Market volatility tends to move higher in late summer as trading volumes get thinner. During these testing times, economic news tends to have a bigger psychological impact, not just on investors, but also on consumer confidence. Recent data points highlight just how fragile consumer sentiment can be.


July 30, 2015

China's Dilemma: Is it 1987 or 1929?

Whether the current period becomes known as China’s version of 1929’s Black Thursday in the United States or a much healthier scenario analogous to 1987’s Black Monday, now depends very much on the strategy its policymakers adopt over the next few months. For China’s sake, I hope it is the latter, but at this point investors should take note that the world’s second-largest economy could just as likely find itself at the epicenter of this century’s greatest equity market correction.


July 16, 2015

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.


July 06, 2015

Staring Into an Abyss

With a resounding "NO" vote on the Greek referendum to accept the terms of Europe's proposed "bailout," market pundits are out in force talking about the coming turmoil. I think investors and policymakers alike would be wise to step back and put this unexpected outcome into perspective for the long term.


June 25, 2015

Sunny with a Chance of Turbulence

Despite the fact that returns across U.S. investment categories are pretty dismal year to date, markets are pricing optimistically and it seems the sunshine has brought growth back to the U.S. economy. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 280,000 increase in employment in May. Additionally, building permits rose 11.8 percent in May, better than the 3.5 percent decline forecast by economists, while the pace of existing home sales hit its fastest rate since late 2009. Taking everything into account, the likelihood that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next year or two would appear to be extremely remote. Still, seemingly isolated events could yet sour the mood.


June 18, 2015

Connecting the Dots

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee expressed a more dovish outlook for the long term, but one that clearly puts September in the crosshairs for an interest rate hike after six long years at the zero bound. In the meantime, we are becoming vulnerable to some sort of summer risk-off trade. At this stage, it would be prudent to prepare for a risk-off period by the opportunistic liquidation of lower-quality high yield and bank loans, which have appreciated in price this year, and selectively taking gains in stocks while increasing holdings in cash and Treasury securities, as a precaution in preparation of a potential looming summer dislocation.

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