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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 40: Real Estate and Its Possible Black Swan: The Office Sector

Jenny Marler, Head of Guggenheim Real Estate, provides insight into the $21 trillion commercial real estate market, especially the office sector, as well as where she is seeing value.


September 15, 2023

Third Quarter 2023 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.


August 21, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: Strong First Half Doesn’t Negate Recession Concerns

U.S. economic activity has been better than expected, but leading recession indicators still argue for caution.


June 20, 2023

Second Quarter 2023 Quarterly Macro Themes

Research spotlight on what’s next.


May 16, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: The Economic Cycle Is Reaching a Turning Point

Leading signals are flashing red as the debt ceiling takes center stage.


February 22, 2023

Macroeconomic Update: Goldilocks Economy Now, But Recession Looms in 2023

We expect that a recession in 2023 will not be overly severe, particularly with improved global prospects.


January 27, 2023

10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023

10 charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends we believe are most likely to shape the investment environment in 2023.


January 12, 2023

Inflation Release Adds to Good News for the Fed…and Bonds

Recent data is moving in the Fed’s desired direction.


November 10, 2022

Macroeconomic Update: Fed to Get the Recession It Wants in 2023

The Fed will likely overdo it with rate hikes, viewing a recession as the least bad outcome for the economy.


November 04, 2022

The Jobs Data Trend Is Duration’s Friend 

October jobs data suggests a cooling labor market.


October 28, 2022

Weaker Payrolls Will Reward Pent-Up Demand for Fed Pivot

Weakening jobs picture will signal that Fed tightening is working as intended.


August 19, 2022

Stocks Are in Trouble if S&P Fails to Break Above its 200-day Moving Average 

Deeper losses for equities may lay ahead.


August 11, 2022

The Inflation Moderation We Expected Should Continue

Lower July CPI inflation is likely the beginning of a trend.


August 02, 2022

Recession Risks Mount with the Fed Determined to Crush Inflation 

A Fed-induced downturn will be required to bring inflation down to target.


June 30, 2022

Recession Signals Flashing Red

The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.


May 18, 2022

Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision

The risks of tightening into a downturn.


April 12, 2022

An Investor’s Guide to the Runup to Recession

Comparing pre-recession performance of multiple asset classes.


January 07, 2022

Strange Jobs Report Opens Door for March Rate Hike

Employment and inflation data raise the likelihood of Fed activity.


November 01, 2021

Yield Curve Flattening Carries a Warning About Looming Rate Hike Cycle

The long end of the yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2009.







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