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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 


August 23, 2018

The Fed Is Leaning into the Fiscal Boost 

Above-potential growth, a tight labor market, and rising inflation mean Fed policy is heading into restrictive territory.


August 20, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2018

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the current state of the markets as tail risks get fatter.


August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.


May 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2018

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate conditions for more rate, credit, and equity volatility going forward.


May 17, 2018

When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collide

Ill-timed fiscal stimulus will require more aggressive Fed policy tightening, ultimately ending in recession.


May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.


February 23, 2018

Fiscal Policy Giveth, Monetary Policy Taketh Away

Investors should focus on credit quality amid further spread tightening as tax cuts take effect.


February 23, 2018

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2018

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate that while current conditions could persist for some time, the time for caution is approaching.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Our new analytical tools point to a high probability that the next recession will start in late 2019 to early 2020.


November 14, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2017

Selected charts from our Fourth Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why prudent investors must look past melt-up conditions to the longer-term outlook.


November 14, 2017

Normalizing Today, Overshooting Tomorrow

A strong economy is likely to embolden the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace than the market is expecting.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.


August 16, 2017

Market Yawns as Fed Tees Up Balance Sheet Runoff

Easy financial conditions keep the Fed on course despite a string of weak inflation readings.


August 16, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2017

Selected charts from our Third Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate the case for reducing exposure to credit risk and spread duration.


August 07, 2017

The Transition Away from Libor

Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.


May 24, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2017

Selected charts from our Second Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook suggest that now is a time for caution amid tight spreads and evolving monetary and fiscal policy.


May 19, 2017

Fed Likely to Stay the Course

A tightening labor market and near-target inflation will keep the Fed on track even as fiscal policy sputters.


February 17, 2017

Factoring in Late-Cycle Fiscal Stimulus

The Fed will likely need to hike rates at a faster pace than the markets are pricing in.


February 15, 2017

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2017

Selected charts from our First Quarter 2017 Fixed-Income Outlook reflect market conditions as the Fed’s path and President Trump’s policy agenda come into focus.


January 23, 2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.


December 15, 2016

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q4 2016

At a glance, selected charts from our Fourth Quarter 2016 Fixed-Income Outlook highlight views from our fixed-income investment team on relative value and macroeconomic conditions.


December 15, 2016

Expecting More 2017 Hikes than the Market

Markets will be grappling with a tightening labor market, rising inflation, and, not least, a new administration.


September 08, 2016

Expansion Continues Despite Weak Q1

U.S. economic growth was below trend in the first quarter, but our second-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook calls for a rebound in the second half of 2016.


August 19, 2016

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q3 2016

At a glance, selected charts from our Third Quarter 2016 Fixed-Income Outlook highlight views from our fixed-income investment team on relative value and macroeconomic conditions.


August 17, 2016

Steady as She Goes

Our third-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook indicates that a strong U.S. consumer combined with a wary Fed and global stimulus should support U.S. credit markets.


June 10, 2016

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q2 2016

At a glance, selected charts from our Q2 2016 Fixed-Income Outlook summarize our current economic outlook and views on relative value.


March 17, 2016

The U.S. Economy Is Fundamentally Sound

Our first-quarter Macroeconomic Outlook suggests recession fears are overblown, and that the oil market should rebalance in the second half.


January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.


January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Our research suggests the massive El Niño weather pattern has the potential to add 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter.







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