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Macroeconomic and Investment Research

Our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team analyzes a wide range of economic data and market behavior to synthesize the implications for investors and the potential direction of policy and markets.


 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 25: Yields & Spreads: Are We Getting Paid for Taking Risk in Today’s Market?

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, on the economic and credit cycle, and on risk and opportunity across the fixed-income landscape.


November 10, 2022

Macroeconomic Update: Fed to Get the Recession It Wants in 2023

The Fed will likely overdo it with rate hikes, viewing a recession as the least bad outcome for the economy.


November 04, 2022

The Jobs Data Trend Is Duration’s Friend 

October jobs data suggests a cooling labor market.


October 28, 2022

Weaker Payrolls Will Reward Pent-Up Demand for Fed Pivot

Weakening jobs picture will signal that Fed tightening is working as intended.


August 19, 2022

Stocks Are in Trouble if S&P Fails to Break Above its 200-day Moving Average 

Deeper losses for equities may lay ahead.


August 11, 2022

The Inflation Moderation We Expected Should Continue

Lower July CPI inflation is likely the beginning of a trend.


August 02, 2022

Recession Risks Mount with the Fed Determined to Crush Inflation 

A Fed-induced downturn will be required to bring inflation down to target.


June 30, 2022

Recession Signals Flashing Red

The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.


May 18, 2022

Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision

The risks of tightening into a downturn.


April 12, 2022

An Investor’s Guide to the Runup to Recession

Comparing pre-recession performance of multiple asset classes.


January 07, 2022

Strange Jobs Report Opens Door for March Rate Hike

Employment and inflation data raise the likelihood of Fed activity.


November 01, 2021

Yield Curve Flattening Carries a Warning About Looming Rate Hike Cycle

The long end of the yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2009.


September 15, 2021

Weak Data and Fiscal Uncertainty Will Delay Fed Tapering

Bond yields could fall further as rising fiscal risks get priced in.


August 18, 2021

Delta Impact on Consumer Behavior Will Delay Tapering Announcement

The resurgent virus should keep a lid on Treasury Yields.


August 11, 2021

Latest CPI Validates the Transitory Nature of Inflation Spikes

Falling demand will help limit the extent of more price increases.


July 14, 2021

Still No Reason to Panic About Inflation

Taking a look at the upside surprise in June’s CPI.


June 10, 2021

The Fed's Strategic Play: Closing the Chapter on Its Credit Facilities

Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.


June 04, 2021

Unpacking the May Jobs Report: Further Progress, but Far from Substantial

A disappointing May jobs report strengthens our conviction that Fed policymakers will stay the course.


May 19, 2021

Inflation Is Spiking, But You Only Reopen the Economy Once 

The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.


May 03, 2021

The Coming Disinflation

Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.


April 05, 2021

Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market

Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.


March 29, 2021

Don’t Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish

The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.


March 22, 2021

The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve

Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.


March 16, 2021

Inflation: Time For a Reality Check

Our view is that inflation will generally remain subdued in coming years, allowing the Fed to point to cumulative shortfalls from its two percent goal to support delaying the start of policy tightening.


November 03, 2020

Guggenheim’s 2020 Election Portfolios

Our portfolios are constructed based on the key aspects of each candidate’s policy agenda that we believe will move markets. We published daily updates in the run up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, 2020.


January 22, 2020

10 Macroeconomic Themes to Watch in 2020

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.


September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.


April 09, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.


January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.


October 29, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard continue to suggest a recession is likely to begin in early 2020. Investors ignore the yield curve’s signal at their peril.


August 15, 2018

Hazards of the Next Two Years

In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses on Asset TV how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.


May 09, 2018

Forecasting the Next Recession: Updating Our Outlook for Recession Timing

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.


January 16, 2018

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2018

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2018 and beyond.


November 29, 2017

Forecasting the Next Recession

Introducing our analytical tools for estimating the timing of the next recession.


September 27, 2017

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

Based on today’s relatively rich valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years.


August 07, 2017

The Transition Away from Libor

Plans are afoot to establish a replacement for Libor beyond the FCA’s 2021 end date.


January 23, 2017

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2017

Ten charts illustrate the global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.


January 28, 2016

Macro Forecasts for 2016

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes in 10 charts global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment.


January 27, 2016

El Niño Could Add $30 Billion to U.S. Economy

Our research suggests the massive El Niño weather pattern has the potential to add 1.5 percent to U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter.







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