/institutional/perspectives


Macroeconomic Research    |   April 09, 2019    

Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?

Our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard suggest the recession could come as early as first half of 2020 but may not be as severe as past recessions.


Portfolio Strategy    |   March 07, 2019     |     Fixed-Income Outlook

Late-Cycle Drama Is Unfolding

Risk assets will likely enjoy another rally while the Fed stays on hold, but the pause will only allow excesses to become more pronounced.


Global CIO Outlook    |   January 24, 2019    

Amber Lights Flash at Davos

Should the mood this year at Davos prove once again to be a contra-indicator, this may be the signal that the economy is likely to re-accelerate soon and that the party in risk assets continues.


Sector Views    |   January 18, 2019     |     High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook

Up the Escalator, Down the Elevator

An uptick in corporate defaults in 2019 will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of stress in the corporate bond market.


Global CIO Outlook    |   December 27, 2018    

Sometimes Meteors Strike the Earth

What would be a normal seasonal correction is turning into the worst December selloff in equities since the Great Depression.


Portfolio Strategy    |   July 09, 2018    

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Shortening duration, maintaining an investment-grade portfolio, and generating attractive yields do not have to be competing investment objectives for core fixed-income investors.


VIDEO

Forecasting the Next Recession

Forecasting the Next Recession

Global CIO Scott Minerd and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Brian Smedley provide context and commentary to complement our recent publication, “Forecasting the Next Recession.”

Watch Video

Fixed-Income Outlook

First Quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook

Portfolio Manager Adam Bloch and Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group Director Matt Bush share insights from the first quarter 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook.

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March 07, 2019

Fixed-Income Outlook Chart Highlights: Q1 2019

Selected charts from our First Quarter Fixed-Income Outlook illustrate why we believe late-cycle drama is unfolding.

January 16, 2019

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.



Global CIO Outlook    |   April 26, 2018    

Seeking a Return on Sustainable Development

A framework for transitioning sustainable investing to an institutional asset class.


Portfolio Strategy    |   August 08, 2017    

The ABCs of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)

Finding value in complexity: The structure, risks, and investor-friendly features of asset-backed securities.


Portfolio Strategy    |   April 05, 2017    

Understanding Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

Explaining the structure and investor-friendly features of collateralized loan obligations, an often misunderstood sector of structured credit.




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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management.