/institutional/perspectives


Global CIO Outlook    |   June 08, 2020    

The Fed’s Roadmap

The Fed has increasingly unorthodox policy options if the economy remains mired in a protracted downturn.


Sector Views    |   May 20, 2020     |     High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook

Reaching the End of the Runway

While the U.S. speculative-grade default rate could reach 15 percent in this cycle, the market is offering better entry points than seen in years.


Global CIO Outlook    |   May 10, 2020    

We Are All Government-Sponsored Enterprises Now

The support to corporate America during this economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government.


Global CIO Outlook    |   April 26, 2020    

Prepare for the Era of Recrimination

The unintended consequences and moral hazard of insufficient and misdirected policies.


Global CIO Outlook    |   April 13, 2020    

The Emerging Emerging-Markets Crisis

Global capital markets are not pricing in the growing likelihood of rising EM corporate defaults.


Global CIO Outlook    |   April 05, 2020    

Note to Clients: Where We Are Nibbling at Value

Allocating capital as the pandemic progresses; emerging markets may be next domino to fall.


Global CIO Outlook    |   March 27, 2020    

The Faustian Bargain

The consequences of policymakers returning to the same tools employed in the financial crisis.


Global CIO Outlook    |   March 22, 2020    

The Great Leverage Unwind 

Funding and trading markets are not functioning well due to excessive leverage needing to be unwound in the financial system.


Global CIO Outlook    |   March 20, 2020    

Value Is a Poor Timing Tool

Markets often overshoot, and just because things are cheap doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper.


VIDEO

Forecasting the Next Recession

Tools for Forecasting the Next Recession

The methodology and metrics that inform our recession outlook.

Watch Video

2020 Macro Themes

2020 Macro Themes

Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses major trends likely to shape markets this year.

Watch Video


January 22, 2020

10 Macroeconomic Themes to Watch in 2020

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.

September 17, 2019

Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.



Portfolio Strategy    |   December 12, 2019    

The Transition Away from Libor

Much Progress, More Wood to Chop


Portfolio Strategy    |   November 08, 2019    

The Science and Art of Risk Management: Liquidity Risk

Good risk management leads to good decision making.


Portfolio Strategy    |   November 04, 2019    

The Risk Mitigation Advantage in Active Fixed-Income Management 

Why active has the potential to outperform passive in fixed income.


Portfolio Strategy    |   May 01, 2019    

Understanding Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

Explaining the structure and investor-friendly features of collateralized loan obligations, an often misunderstood sector of structured credit.


Portfolio Strategy    |   July 09, 2018    

Solving the Core Fixed-Income Conundrum

Shortening duration, maintaining an investment-grade portfolio, and generating attractive yields do not have to be competing investment objectives for core fixed-income investors.


Portfolio Strategy    |   August 08, 2017    

The ABCs of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)

Finding value in complexity: The structure, risks, and investor-friendly features of asset-backed securities.




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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.