10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023

Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

1. Inflation Will Fall More than the Fed Expects
2. The Unemployment Rate Will Rise from Historically Low Levels
3. A Recession Will Start Around the Middle of 2023
4. Strong Credit Fundamentals Will Limit Spread Widening
5. Attractive Yields Will Drive Fixed-Income Returns
6. High-Quality Fixed Income Will Outperform Equities
7. Bonds Will Again Provide Diversification as Fed Wins the Inflation Battle
8. Structural Housing Supply Shortage Will Limit Downside to Home Prices
9. China Reopening Will Boost Energy Demand
10. Divided Government and Narrow Majorities Will Spur Debt Limit Drama

Important Notices and Disclosures

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

 

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at Guggenheim Investments, joined Asset TV to discuss macroeconomic conditions, risk, and relative value in the bond market.

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2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 30: The Structured Credit Value Proposition Right Now

Karthik Narayanan, Head of Securitized for Guggenheim Investments, gives a master class in structured credit, including where he is finding attractive absolute and relative value in mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and collateralized loan obligations. U.S. Economist Matt Bush discusses recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighting strategy. (Structured credit is complex and may not be suitable for all investors.)

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Macro Markets Podcast: Episode #30