/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/10-macroeconomic-themes-for-2023

10 Macroeconomic Themes for 2023

10 charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends we believe are most likely to shape the investment environment in 2023.

January 27, 2023


Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group identifies 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.

  1. Inflation Will Fall More than the Fed Expects
  2. The Unemployment Rate Will Rise from Historically Low Levels
  3. A Recession Will Start Around the Middle of 2023
  4. Strong Credit Fundamentals Will Limit Spread Widening
  5. Attractive Yields Will Drive Fixed-Income Returns
  6. High-Quality Fixed Income Will Outperform Equities
  7. Bonds Will Again Provide Diversification as Fed Wins the Inflation Battle
  8. Structural Housing Supply Shortage Will Limit Downside to Home Prices
  9. China Reopening Will Boost Energy Demand
  10. Divided Government and Narrow Majorities Will Spur Debt Limit Drama
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Valuations have reset after a volatile year.


VIDEOS AND PODCASTS

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income 

2022’s Upside: The Fed Has Put the Income Back in Fixed Income

Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at Guggenheim Investments, joined Asset TV to discuss macroeconomic conditions, risk, and relative value in the bond market.

Macro Markets Podcast 

Macro Markets Podcast Episode 30: The Structured Credit Value Proposition Right Now

Karthik Narayanan, Head of Securitized for Guggenheim Investments, gives a master class in structured credit, including where he is finding attractive absolute and relative value in mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and collateralized loan obligations. U.S. Economist Matt Bush discusses recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighting strategy. (Structured credit is complex and may not be suitable for all investors.)







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Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Securities offered through Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC.

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