/perspectives/global-cio-outlook?page=12

Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


 

“A Drunk Man in the Snow”: The Random Walk of Interest Rates

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, joins CNBC for an exclusive two-part interview to discuss his view on rates and a new CIO Outlook.


June 12, 2013

The Instability of Stability

Hyman Minsky’s scholarship holds valuable lessons for the current dynamic in the economy. The Fed, via QE, continues to induce speculative buying in the Treasury market, which is having the effect of destabilizing a number of asset classes.


June 05, 2013

The Fed's Dilemma

Market volatility is rising as the Fed continues with its asset purchase program. The economy also appears increasingly vulnerable to a rise in interest rates, which would have an adverse effect on housing in particular.


June 03, 2013

The Canary in the Coal Mine

Ongoing monetary stimulus is leading to heightened volatility, and the bull market which has been in place since 2009 is becoming overextended. The recent string of surprise downside moves in markets may be the canary in the coal mine for global investors.


April 10, 2013

The Ripple Effect of Abenomics

Monetary policy in Japan will continue to drive investors in that country to overseas markets, which will affect global asset prices and bond yields.


March 06, 2013

When Will The Music Stop?

The investment environment is in transition, with uncertainty around policy moves contributing an increasing amount of uncertainty for asset prices.


February 13, 2013

When Politics Trump Economics

The U.S. economic expansion continues, but increasing attention to political risks, and currency wars, in particular, indicate a period of heightened volatility could be ahead.


December 03, 2012

The Keynesian Depression

The Great Depression brought about the Keynesian Revolution, complete with new analytical tools and economic programs that have been relied upon for decades. Over the years, the accumulation of these policy actions has reduced the flexibility to deal with crises and nations have now exceeded their ability to finance themselves without relying on their central banks as lenders of last resort. Increasingly large doses of monetary policy are required just to keep the economy expanding at a subpar pace. Some have referred to this as reaching the Keynesian endpoint.


October 09, 2012

Return to Bretton Woods

The gold-convertible U.S. dollar became the global reserve currency under the Bretton Woods monetary system that lasted from 1944-1971. This arrangement ended because foreign central banks accumulated excessive reserves of U.S. Treasuries, threatening price stability and the purchasing power of the dollar. Today, central banks are once again stockpiling massive Treasury reserves in an attempt to manage their currency values and gain advantages in export markets. We have, effectively, returned to Bretton Woods. The trouble is that the arrangement is as unsustainable today as it was during the middle of the last century.


August 21, 2012

The Faustian Bargain

Since 2008, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing instead of undertaking structural reforms have arguably entered into a Faustian bargain of epic proportions. What are the potential consequences of global central banks printing trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, francs, and yen in an attempt to provide short-term fixes for their nations’ long-term economic problems?


March 06, 2012

Winning the War in Europe

In centuries past, there have been many wars fought to bring Europe under one economic and political union. Today, in many ways, Europe is engaged in another war – a war to preserve the hard-fought gains of monetary and fiscal union built over the past five decades. Just as past European conflicts resulted in grave economic costs and massive amounts of debt, this fight has taken a similar path. How long will it take to resolve? The interwar period from 1918 to 1939 may offer some insight.

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