Global CIO Outlook

Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd offers insights on macroeconomic trends and the potential impacts on global investment opportunities.


“A Drunk Man in the Snow”: The Random Walk of Interest Rates

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, joins CNBC for an exclusive two-part interview to discuss his view on rates and a new CIO Outlook.

December 30, 2011

The Triumph of Optimism

Are the dark clouds finally breaking? There is positive economic momentum in the United States, progress in Europe, and global policy accommodations being implemented that are pro-cyclical and supportive of longer-term economic growth. Over the course of history there is a certain triumph of optimism. From an investor’s perspective, the best time to be an optimist is when there is a parade of pessimism marching down Main Street.

November 02, 2011

Return of the Phillips Curve

Worried about millions of Americans out of work, some members of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee say they’re willing to tolerate higher inflation. The idea that rising prices can reduce unemployment is rooted in the Phillips Curve, a half-century old economic theory. History shows the trade-off can hold, but only temporarily and only if expectations of inflation are well anchored.

August 31, 2011

Keep Calm, Carry On

Financial markets have been unnerved by Europe's sovereign debt crisis, a slowdown in global economic growth, and political rancor; but for far-sighted investors, today's market turmoil presents a rare opportunity. The torrent of liquidity unleashed by major central banks should be a boon for asset prices in the medium-term. Fundamentals, at least in the U.S., also remain far healthier than the market's recent slump implies.

July 26, 2011

Europe’s Cognitive Dissonance

European policymakers have had a hard time accepting the reality of the region’s debt crisis. Bailouts and belt tightening have merely postponed the inevitable: a restructuring of sovereign debts and harmonization of fiscal policies.

May 18, 2011

The Case for More Monetary Elixir

The surprise in 2011 may be lower rates as Treasuries and fixed income securities rally in the midst of growing uncertainty. Further down the road, if price pressures moderate, employment remains slow to recover, and fiscal headwinds mount, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may fire up the printing presses once again.

March 30, 2011

Enjoy the Good Times While They Last

I believe long-term growth in the United States will be even stronger than the market is currently discounting. The vast amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus that have been unleashed have created a rising tide of liquidity that’s lifting asset prices for just about everything except real estate.

February 27, 2011

The Economic Domino Effect

Restrictive monetary policy will lead to economic slowdown in the emerging markets in 2011. Since it's seldom a good bet to fight against central banks, emerging market equities are not the place to be for the next few years.

January 14, 2011

Europe's Gordian Knot

It's only a matter of time before Germany and France find the political will to lead Europe into a new era of fiscal unification. Ultimately, the motivation is the same reason Alexander the Great cut the Gordian Knot - the promise of ruling over a unified continent.

May 31, 2010

The Return of “Beggar-Thy-Neighbor”

“Beggar-thy-neighbor” describes an economic policy that involves one nation devaluing its currency in the hope of increasing exports at the expense of other nations. Today, G-20 leaders are searching for an answer to their economic ills and they appear to be finding it, at least in part, through potentially perilous thoughts of competitive currency devaluation.

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